Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[Richardjacks]

My take is that I've seen some forecasts pan out exactly as predicted, and I've seen numerous others that didn't. The Significant Tornado Parameter for 0z concerns me a bit. It may be too aggressive, but that remains to be seen.

That's downright scary

 

[TornadoFan]

My take is that I've seen some forecasts pan out exactly as predicted, and I've seen numerous others that didn't. The Significant Tornado Parameter for 0z concerns me a bit. It may be too aggressive, but that remains to be seen.

 

[warneagle]

I'm not one for taking the HRRR literally, but that 0z run is uh, not great.

Like I'm not 100% sold that the semi-discrete mode it's showing is realistic but if you do get semi-discrete convection in that kind of parameter space...look out.

 

[KevinH]

I'm not one for taking the HRRR literally, but that 0z run is uh, not great.

I was only looking at the 18z….

UNTIL NOW…

*goes to look*

 

[JWard87]

I'm not one for taking the HRRR literally, but that 0z run is uh, not great.

The 00Z run of the HRRR has a history of trending on the high end.

 

[Richardjacks]

The 3k nam is a bit concerning too

 

[Blizzard1]

That's downright scary

Hello, so I have been out of pocket a bit today but your take is concerning. What happened to ramp things up so much for Alabama tomorrow…the time of day it is coming through rather than what was being anticipated say, yesterday? Thanks!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Gunna stay up for the 01z hrrr and then I'm off. Make sure the 00z isn't a fluke.

 

[W4AQX]

That's downright scary

No kidding.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Thing that keeps me in check with HRRR is the lack of UH tracks. The trend is more and more for tornadic potential but I have learned lack of UH tracks for whatever reason could be a sign of limiting factor (maybe warm 700 MB temps?) that is kind of keeping me in check of screaming tornado outbreak. That being said everything parameter wise is there + more obviously.
Taking away from that though, we are guaranteed a high-end non-thunderstorm wind event in East TN

Moist soil will help more damage to be caused.

 

[MattPetrulli]

The 3k nam is a bit concerning too

It's linear but I think with a solution like 3km NAM a high-end damaging wind solution can be realized regardless of any QLCS or tornado threat. Damaging wind threat with this may go under the radar as tornado potential increases.

 

[KevinH]

STP parameters are high on the 0z run of the nam (valid 1-3pm), but the UH is mostly drawing a blank for AL/GA. And even though the UH tracks are “blank” and don’t really show any tracks for AL/GA, the soundings still come up PDS.

Make it make sense lol

 

[Austin Dawg]

That's downright scary

How's it looking for the very very eastern counties of Mississippi along to Alabama state line like Monroe, Itawamba, Lowndes, Tishomingo?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

01z hrrr is a tad slower

 

[Richardjacks]

STP parameters are high on the 0z run of the nam (valid 1-3pm), but the UH is mostly drawing a blank for AL/GA. And even though the UH tracks are “blank” and don’t really show any tracks for AL/GA, the soundings still come up PDS.

Make it make sense lol

That's why I said I have seen similar setups produce nothing, the front is charging and nothing can be sustained before its caught by the front.

 

[KevinH]

That's why I said I have seen similar setups produce nothing, the front is charging and nothing can be sustained before its caught by the front.

Ah

 

[W4AQX]

The 3k nam is a bit concerning too

Absolutely concerning.

 

[keithGA]

This is maddening. I'm glad I don't forecast for a living.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The idea of thunderstorm activity on the models in this high end parameter space has me interested in chasing the southern apps region tomorrow. I think I may target far north Georgia to South Carolina.

 

[Gail]

Spoke with my ILs in Shreveport. They said LSUS campus (which they are close to) sustained some damage and Youree Drive. Those two areas they knew for sure. They’re okay though, thankfully.

If you aren’t familiar with Shreveport, Youree Drive is a fairly long road with a lot of homes and businesses. It’s a very busy area.