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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

it is strange, although the STP and everything else is ramping up, the UH is non existent essentially. I have a feeling nothing is going to get going....really reminds me of the moderate forcasted system from a few years ago (or more)...wish I remember when that was.
 
01z HRRR also convecting more than previous runs in AL/GA, but zero UH tracks. Still seems like it is gonna come down to a zero hour thing for my neck of the woods. Ugh.
 
Oh
refcmp_uh001h.us_ov.png

refcmp_uh001h.us_ov.png

FV3 is too progressive so won't post
 
I'm old school. But with an expected Lull in precip in morning and with adequate instability that develops including the close proximity(just NW of EVV) of a Low that will be in the the record books likely at a sub 978mb; that is the area I think with the greatest chance of some strong tornadoes.
In Western and Central Kentucky we usually get the lower level shear needed. But we are limited on instability and it simply trashes any severe weather event. But this event looks interesting.
 
I am headed to bed.

The first two D1 outlooks for tomorrow should be……. interesting…

EDIT: Before I go, look at the SRH value forecast loop on the NAM and HRRR for tomorrow. :oops:
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Multiple power flashes!

Radar coverage sucks on this storm.
Click to expand...

So they found out it’s the same power line down. But now seeing debris and still no tornado warning. The kink and the velocity with the ground observations are good enough to have already issued a tornado warning.
 
So far IMHO, the modeling over the last 2 days have sucked. Timing has sucked for sure. Friday ,if one leans on the CAM's would need to be really concerned over North Alabama? But what's up with the UH tracks non existence?? Just watch. Friday will wind up being trouble to the east of I-65. I mean without a tornado risk a large area of convective to non-convective winds will cause headaches at over 55-65 MPH.
Makes one want to drink...
 
If we get sustained updrafts before they're sheared downstream in AL/GA, structure will be mixed mode. Now, whether those that acquire supercells characteristics can sustain themselves long enough to take advantage of the low-level environment is another story. Some guidance still shows warm temperatures aloft that will hinder the ceiling. I'm still of the opinion we'll see scattered SVR in AL/GA with damaging winds the main threat. Confidence is not high.
 
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