Austin Dawg
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Getting slowly started.
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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
MattPetrulli
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It's going to be a long night for sure
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Did the ole switcheroo hahha, decides at the last minute to give some discrete significant cells
Yeah, saw a broken look on the EURO too. Would turn the significant long track tornado potential up a lot.
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I wish Andrew Brady with the MMFS would do a run centered over Arkansas he's had it on Georgia lately. It did really well on placement on some of the storms last night. Somebody hit him up
CheeselandSkies
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One wild card I didn't really consider for most of the lead-up to this setup (since it had looked so impressive on a synoptic level, and I didn't really see much of anything firing yesterday due to the main trough being so far off yet) is outflow boundaries from yesterday's storms. May locally enhance low-level shear and/or provide foci for initiation/maintenance of updrafts in the warm sector. I believe SPC already noted that the initial round of hailers was firing along one.
Austin Dawg
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ETA
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 53
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Oklahoma
Western north Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM
until 700 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Initially elevated thunderstorms will evolve into more
surface-based storms along a front from northwest Texas into
southern Oklahoma this afternoon. The storm environment will favor
clusters of supercells capable of producing swaths of very large
hail up to 3 inches in diameter, and occasional damaging gusts of
60-75 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southeast of
Ardmore OK to 90 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
KevinH
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Timhsv
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Look at this from Phil Campbell last night at 10:30! The lightning strike hits the transformer and then goes to ground across the street. Absolutely amazing
Timhsv
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I deleted it and reposted the image
MattPetrulli
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Why hello there 10% tornado day
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Good gosh would it be awful if this event came to fruition how it could.Why hello there 10% tornado day
The updraft helicity spike on the HRRRs past several runs in close proximity of Little Rock is of concern.
CheeselandSkies
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Of all things to be a failure mode in early March, too warm mid-level temps are not what you would pick (referring to GA for tomorrow).
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What's the chance of this warm nose coming in less robust? Should we consider that a option at this point.
warneagle
Member
I have less than zero faith in the long range HRRR at this point but on paper that's a scary look. Not "I'm taking off work and driving six hours to have a look" scary, but scary.
Eastern KY with that environment tomorrow almost 11 years to the day since the 3/2/2012 outbreak.Why hello there 10% tornado day
Not saying anything like that will even come close to verifying or occur, it’s just kind of eerie.
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Tomcats Forever!
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Well, you'd need a helicopter to chase there if you did.
TornadoFan
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Poolville, TX looks to have some rotation on it. Very broad at this point.