Austin Dawg
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Getting slowly started.
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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley
- Thread starter KevinH
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MattPetrulli
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It's going to be a long night for sure
Did the ole switcheroo hahha, decides at the last minute to give some discrete significant cells
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- #1,105
Yeah, saw a broken look on the EURO too. Would turn the significant long track tornado potential up a lot.
I wish Andrew Brady with the MMFS would do a run centered over Arkansas he's had it on Georgia lately. It did really well on placement on some of the storms last night. Somebody hit him up
CheeselandSkies
Member
One wild card I didn't really consider for most of the lead-up to this setup (since it had looked so impressive on a synoptic level, and I didn't really see much of anything firing yesterday due to the main trough being so far off yet) is outflow boundaries from yesterday's storms. May locally enhance low-level shear and/or provide foci for initiation/maintenance of updrafts in the warm sector. I believe SPC already noted that the initial round of hailers was firing along one.
Austin Dawg
Member
ETA
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 53
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Oklahoma
Western north Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM
until 700 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Initially elevated thunderstorms will evolve into more
surface-based storms along a front from northwest Texas into
southern Oklahoma this afternoon. The storm environment will favor
clusters of supercells capable of producing swaths of very large
hail up to 3 inches in diameter, and occasional damaging gusts of
60-75 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southeast of
Ardmore OK to 90 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
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KevinH
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Timhsv
Member
Look at this from Phil Campbell last night at 10:30! The lightning strike hits the transformer and then goes to ground across the street. Absolutely amazing
Timhsv
Member
I deleted it and reposted the image
MattPetrulli
Member
Why hello there 10% tornado day
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Good gosh would it be awful if this event came to fruition how it could.Why hello there 10% tornado day
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The updraft helicity spike on the HRRRs past several runs in close proximity of Little Rock is of concern.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Of all things to be a failure mode in early March, too warm mid-level temps are not what you would pick (referring to GA for tomorrow).
What's the chance of this warm nose coming in less robust? Should we consider that a option at this point.
warneagle
Member
I have less than zero faith in the long range HRRR at this point but on paper that's a scary look. Not "I'm taking off work and driving six hours to have a look" scary, but scary.
Eastern KY with that environment tomorrow almost 11 years to the day since the 3/2/2012 outbreak.Why hello there 10% tornado day
Not saying anything like that will even come close to verifying or occur, it’s just kind of eerie.
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Tomcats Forever!
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Well, you'd need a helicopter to chase there if you did.
TornadoFan
Member
Poolville, TX looks to have some rotation on it. Very broad at this point.