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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

Not too impressed with today at the moment. Think best sig tor risk is DFW to NE TX. Maybe some pre frontals but otherwise seems like a QLCS threat unless CAMS are under concerting. Tomorrow’s environment is pristine but looks like the lack of convection issue may stand. Overall at the present moment both days don’t really look high end like I once thought they would be
 
MattPetrulli said:
Not too impressed with today at the moment. Think best sig tor risk is DFW to NE TX. Maybe some pre frontals but otherwise seems like a QLCS threat unless CAMS are under concerting. Tomorrow’s environment is pristine but looks like the lack of convection issue may stand. Overall at the present moment both days don’t really look high end like I once thought they would be
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Yeah that's what I thought this morning when looking at things, but then I saw the NWS discussion and was like okay I'll let the more knowledgeable people figure this one out... I will say the WRF is more discreet not sure if that's just a bias though
 
@Richardjacks whats your oppionon on the arklatex tornado potential today, is there something that the amateurs like me would not see? I've seen some conflict between people on twitter thinking today isn't as bad of a event but some SPC and other people think this is a very high end event
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
@Richardjacks whats your oppionon on the arklatex tornado potential today, is there something that the amateurs like me would not see? I've seen some conflict between people on twitter thinking today isn't as bad of a event but some SPC and other people think this is a very high end event
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That's typical wxtwitter for you. Always arguing over number of tornadoes and SPC's risk not verifying to their standards.
 
12z HRRR still shows an impressive parameter space, but for whatever reason just doesn't convect much in Alabama and Georgia tomorrow.
 
Geez, Friday is looking weeeird. High parameter space at a glance but problems at the mid-levels. Anything that gets going in that environment would be a real troublemaker, but whether that happens at all will remain an open question right up until zero hour. Not gonna enjoy watching the radar Friday.
HRRRSE_con_scp_032.png
 
keithGA said:
12z HRRR still shows an impressive parameter space, but for whatever reason just doesn't convect much in Alabama and Georgia tomorrow.
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For reference, I can think of a (very small) handful of setups like this for the area. 4/5/17 was vaguely similar, though convection was pretty widespread compared to what's being modelled. Someone also brought up 5/6/22 as a similar event.
 
Clancy said:
Geez, Friday is looking weeeird. High parameter space at a glance but problems at the mid-levels. Anything that gets going in that environment would be a real troublemaker, but whether that happens at all will remain an open question right up until zero hour. Not gonna enjoy watching the radar Friday.
View attachment 18478
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See that's where day of mesoscale analysis is key. Say if you have midl level temps come in not as robust. It could be a LONG day. I'm weary of not knowing how it's gunna turn out lol
 
buckeye05 said:
Hearing reports of 4 or 5 homes damaged along Short Track Dr northeast of Hazel Green, AL. No injuries.
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I live just outside of the polygon for that storm. I love polygon warnings because I read about it this morning instead of being awaken by an alert last night.
 
12Z HRRR came in a little bit hotter than previous runs, I can find at least three potentially significant tornadic supercells that are discrete for a least a little while.

One potential failure mode I've noticed that seems to have crept up on today is that the low-level hodographs are pretty straight until later in the game when convection starts to cluster/line out. The one exception might be in Arkansas where the 12Z HRRR has a couple of potential problem storms this evening while low-level shear is quite strong.

There's enough uncertainty that I think SPC holding at 15% hatched, moderate risk is a good call.
 
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