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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

12z hrrr literally has a outbreak for severe/tornado over Arkansas this afternoon wtc, @WesL watch out this afternoon man, could get busy in your area and to all the other guys over there
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
12z hrrr literally has a outbreak for severe/tornado over Arkansas this afternoon wtc, @WesL watch out this afternoon man, could get busy in your area and to all the other guys over there
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12z HRRR shows a lot of storms blowing up, but wind shear is displaced with the instability. Looks more like a wind and hail threat vs a tornado concern. Wind shear increases in Arkansas AFTER those storms fire up this evening and push eastward. It could end up being a big rainfall/flood concern too. Flood threat could be a major issue for Arkansas tomorrow as well. Weather Prediction Center highlighting a moderate threat for excessive rainfall tomorrow. Moderate threats normally verify with flooding issues.
 
Yeah. The threat potential for flash flooding across North MS tonight has me concerned.
 
Richardjacks said:
we are now approaching the timeframe that models should getting a better idea if there is an occlusion. I have seen some hints, such as the very round isobars and the slower movement of the surface low. Right now, models are suggestion the occlusion doesn't happen, but I know this kind of setup usually leads to one...we shall see
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Fixing to say. I’m having a hard time finding an occluded solution on any given model, at present time . Don’t meant it won’t happen
 
Man it'd be such a double whammy if portions of Arkansas and missippi get hit with flooding and severe the day before the day. I'm really gunna be keeping a eye on those Arkansas storms tonight, I'd imagine there will be a tornado or two but like matt said probably more flooding and hail and wind. Hrrr is very robust on supercell potential in that southeast Arkansas Mississippi area tonight
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Fixing to say. I’m having a hard time finding an occluded solution on any given model, at present time . Don’t meant it won’t happen
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Correct, it usually isn't obvious until closer and then it starts trending that way. I am not 100% sure it will happen but I have seen many cases like this where it did
 
mattdanielwx said:
12z HRRR shows a lot of storms blowing up, but wind shear is displaced with the instability. Looks more like a wind and hail threat vs a tornado concern. Wind shear increases in Arkansas AFTER those storms fire up this evening and push eastward. It could end up being a big rainfall/flood concern too. Flood threat could be a major issue for Arkansas tomorrow as well. Weather Prediction Center highlighting a moderate threat for excessive rainfall tomorrow. Moderate threats normally verify with flooding issues.
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This is what I see too. But these heavy rains are going to be a cruel setup if more potent weather verifies for tomorrow. High wind + heavy rain + tornadoes in areas of high soil saturation can mean big problems.
 
keithGA said:
3km NAM running now. Checkout this PDS TOR hodo from the SE corner of Arkansas.
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mother of god danger GIF
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
12z hrrr literally has a outbreak for severe/tornado over Arkansas this afternoon wtc, @WesL watch out this afternoon man, could get busy in your area and to all the other guys over there
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Of course, just when we break into the 70s with actual sun. :-)
 
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