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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

Wednesday is a classic day before the day. Looks a lot like 4/11 last year, going to get some big hailers and brief tors, and possibly a sigtor or two in the vicinity of the warm front.

Thursday looks like it has a very high ceiling. NAM has some massive VB due to very weak 800s right around the level of the EML, and global models are picking up on it too. Interested to see CAM outputs tonight and if they replicate this.

Friday is being seriously underforecasted imo. Looks like a potentially big day whether QLCS or cellular driven. I'm particularly worried because pattern recognition tells me some confluence bands are likely in the warm sector, which would make that day particularly dangerous considering discrete development would be likely should that scenario unfold.

Edit: random comment but this thread name is WAY TOO LONG lol
 
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The UMET has been very consistent for the last few runs for a major secondary peak across AL/GA on Friday evening. Bit of an outlier but given just what its showing - which I don't see anyone really talking about - It still needs watching imo.

Photos of the run below:
(Sounding from C AL)

Edit: It seems the dew point and 850mb wind maps aren't uploading unfortunately so just check out the link here:
www.pivotalweather.com

Models: UKMET — Pivotal Weather

View UKMET weather model forecast map image for 2 m AGL Dew Point, Wind Barbs in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
 

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UncleJuJu98 said:
According to little rock this is likely more significant than December 10-11 for there area. Maybe I guess it terms of tornadoes and not just environment. Not sure .

It my head that signifies since the vilonia event.
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I think this is probably reading a little too far into it. "A while" could just mean the most impressive setup of the season so far, or in the past 6 months, or the past year. Certainly it is strongly worded but that statement probably can't be qualified like that (worst since 2014).
 
Penitentes said:
I think this is probably reading a little too far into it. "A while" could just mean the most impressive setup of the season so far, or in the past 6 months, or the past year. Certainly it is strongly worded but that statement probably can't be qualified like that (worst since 2014).
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Good point lol, I still think though that it's probably the case personally.

Last high risk event for Arkansas was the vilonia event. April 27th 2014.

But this is neither here nor there. Pretty bad weather will happen in Arkansas on day 3.
 
Penitentes said:
I think this is probably reading a little too far into it. "A while" could just mean the most impressive setup of the season so far, or in the past 6 months, or the past year. Certainly it is strongly worded but that statement probably can't be qualified like that (worst since 2014).
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Agreed
 
ashtonlemleywx said:
Wednesday evening has my attention right now. It seems to be the most chasable setup for me in North Mississippi. Doesn't look like I'll have a shot of any daytime chasing Wednesday or Thursday. I'm also keeping my eye on Friday in Alabama for a daytime chase.

Probably going to skip Thursday since its so far West and nocturnal. One of my rules I've made for myself as a chaser is to not chase other states at night. Knowing the roads in your area without a GPS helps at night so you can make faster critical decisions.

Getting zero metered at night in a place you aren't familiar with is terrifying. Happened to me in Alabama at night back in 2013.
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What does zero metered mean? :oops:
 
xJownage said:
Wednesday is a classic day before the day. Looks a lot like 4/11 last year, going to get some big hailers and brief tors, and possibly a sigtor or two in the vicinity of the warm front.

Thursday looks like it has a very high ceiling. NAM has some massive VB due to very weak 800s right around the level of the EML, and global models are picking up on it too. Interested to see CAM outputs tonight and if they replicate this.

Friday is being seriously underforecasted imo. Looks like a potentially big day whether QLCS or cellular driven. I'm particularly worried because pattern recognition tells me some confluence bands are likely in the warm sector, which would make that day particularly dangerous considering discrete development would be likely should that scenario unfold.

Edit: random comment but this thread name is WAY TOO LONG lol
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I decided to start adding the states and dates in the titles of the threads I create so people scrolling through the list can get a better idea of where the risk areas are (and when), instead of having to dig through all of the comments to find out.

Some of the things I have done/will do to shorten the titles:

-abbreviate “Severe Weather” to “Svr Wx”
-abbreviate days of the week from “Monday” to “Mon”
-use numbers for the months instead of the full name of the month “3” instead of “March”.

I may abbreviate the year from 2023 to just 23, again, so people can tell while scrolling what timeframe the thread is in reference to.

Since storms tend to travel west to east, I try to list the states that will be affected in chronological order in the thread title.

Another reason the thread title is longer than usual is because I include states that are at the highest (ENH, MOD, HIGH), and MAYBE also slight? based upon what the SPC says in their outlooks. I check the SPC outlooks every morning and adjust the title if needed, lol

Outbreaks like the one being forecasted later this week can cover a larger area than say a “normal” (less intense outbreak), so more states are going to be covered.

Just trying to give people the most important info up front :)
 
We really need to start paying attention to North missippi for the day 2 threat. I mean good grief it's not a guaranteed tornado but they're is potential tommorow don't let the big event overshadowed this event
 

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UH for tmrw night from 12z HRRR
 
andyhb said:
Really hoping the UK is off its meds for Friday because good lord that is a dangerous setup for AL/GA that it is suggesting.
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I don't usually pay too much attention to the UKMet for severe local storms (winter and tropical, a little more). Didn't it show something pretty significant for 4/13 last year that ended up not panning out?
 
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