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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

I'm super interested in what all the other guidance does tonight. We still have to find sustainable consistency. Thursday will be Day 5, and Friday will be Day 6 in the new outlook tomorrow morning from the SPC.
 
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The GFS with one of its more severe runs yet.
 

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base_reflectivity_wind-nestSE-2023022600-117.jpg

Here is the C-Shield model. Don't know its track record particularly well but its the first higher-res guidance so far so I thought I would share.
 
SMDH

Due to today’s latest SPC guidance I have made the following changes to the thread title:

-added TX, AR, AL

-updated the dates as the timing of the system has sped up

-added “outbreak possible” wording ONLY bc the SPC added it to their D-4-8 outlook

I am not surprised this is happening AGAIN in these same areas. Welcome to Dixie…..in April…. I mean March.
 
KevinH said:
SMDH

Due to today’s latest SPC guidance I have made the following changes to the thread title:

-added TX, AR, AL

-updated the dates as the timing of the system has sped up

-added “outbreak possible” wording ONLY bc the SPC added it to their D-4-8 outlook

I am not surprised this is happening AGAIN in these same areas. Welcome to Dixie…..in April…. I mean March.
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Friday is not March 4
 
This is crazy* how it ended up we've been talking about this since about wensday so this threat really has pushed the buck on long term accuracy.

But in all serious a dangerous high impact event is possible, I'm going to try and tone down and just start posting good info rather than any jokes or stuff lol.

May be a dangerous wind event with severe winds or a tornado event. NWS bham mentions a dangerous linear event with possible tornadoes so we will see. It's pretty early in the game
 
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I think a lot of meteorlgists and weather enthusiasts are focused on the plains event today, unfortunately the south wants to be extra and outdo the plains so it'll probably be a bit before some people trickle in I'd imagine. Would love to hear from some of the meteorlgists in the forum.
 
With storms modelled to pass through the area during the early to mid-morning hours for Alabama and Georgia, lack of diurnal heating will hopefully serve to limit the threat somewhat, though it'd still be a pretty potent low-CAPE high shear event. If the models slow down, though, it'll be a different story.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I think a lot of meteorlgists and weather enthusiasts are focused on the plains event today, unfortunately the south wants to be extra and outdo the plains so it'll probably be a bit before some people trickle in I'd imagine. Would love to hear from some of the meteorlgists in the forum.
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Yeah was thinking that, seen some people on twitter just noticing Thurs/Friday's threat when this thread has been tracking it for multiple days!
 
Last 2 most recent Moderate Risks in March across the Deep South:

March 22nd and 30th, 2022.

Last 2 most recent High Risks in March across the Deep South:

March 17th and 25th, 2021.
 
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