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Severe WX Severe Weather Threats 1/21-1/22 2017 (Saturday - Sunday)

NAM continues to advertise an active Saturday and Saturday night for a good portion of AL. Really, it just comes down to that little disturbance that kicks out ahead of the main trough. In the NAM's case, it doesn't, which keeps the lower level winds from becoming disjointed to the East of the other best dynamics. Mesoscale vs. synoptic scale models.....
 
Kory said:
NAM continues to advertise an active Saturday and Saturday night for a good portion of AL. Really, it just comes down to that little disturbance that kicks out ahead of the main trough. In the NAM's case, it doesn't, which keeps the lower level winds from becoming disjointed to the East of the other best dynamics. Mesoscale vs. synoptic scale models.....
Click to expand...
What do you think about southeast TN? Based on the model data from the NAM
 
I see the SPC moving the Enhanced risk area more to the north and east on Saturday and more to the East on Sunday removing some of the west risk.
 
Well Morristown still mentioning severe weather threat for Saturday and Sunday. They mention 1,000KJ cape values and other ingredients coming together.
 
A few notes. It looks like we will have a fully stacked area of low pressure from top to bottom, also the surface low will be in a maturing mode. Also, typically these type of systems are not noted to be large severe makers, but that is not to say they can't be. Sure, we can have a severe event with an upper closed low, but one that is vertically stacked is not very common...may be a reason why the CIPS analogues are poor. HOWEVER, there are still some meso scale features to be figured out but I could see the environment becoming conducive for severe storms and tornadoes. Also, I have seen with these type of setups is a very strong triple point and even a warm air occlusion. These are items that will not be handled well by the global models. Hopefully the NAM will begin to shed some light in the coming hours.
 
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