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Severe Weather Threat - October 25/26th, 2025

My Dad is down near Orange Beach right now. He called and asked me to check on the tornado warning. I did and told him that if he's within the warning polygon he should take cover, but if not he doesn't need to worry for now (knock on wood!).
 
My Dad is down near Orange Beach right now. He called and asked me to check on the tornado warning. I did and told him that if he's within the warning polygon he should take cover, but if not he doesn't need to worry for now (knock on wood!).
Dang! Glad he’s ok. Definitely was one on ground as you see below.

 
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Don't think I'll extend thread again just for this alone but HRRR wants a conditional overnight tornado threat with this supercell in SW AL albeit briefly on shore from 03-04z

Overnight LLJ picks up and effective shear peaks around 60 kts but slight surface inversion may keep it at bay plus poor mid level lapse rates.

I've came to find out mid level lapse rates matter more with your general systems. MCVs and tropical outer bands have a gateway past the issue due to the fact cells are latched onto the low pressure of sorts and practically feeding off that low as a result. Interesting overnight setup, and since I'm tracking Melissa, i will monitor around this time JUST in case.
 

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Don't think I'll extend thread again just for this alone but HRRR wants a conditional overnight tornado threat with this supercell in SW AL albeit briefly on shore from 03-04z

Overnight LLJ picks up and effective shear peaks around 60 kts but slight surface inversion may keep it at bay plus poor mid level lapse rates.

I've came to find out mid level lapse rates matter more with your general systems. MCVs and tropical outer bands have a gateway past the issue due to the fact cells are latched onto the low pressure of sorts and practically feeding off that low as a result. Interesting overnight setup, and since I'm tracking Melissa, i will monitor around this time JUST in case.

NEAR FLORIDA'S SPACE COAST, COASTAL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY MOIST,
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO SUFFICIENT LIFT TO OVERCOME MID-LEVEL INHIBITION. IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR BENEATH MODEST WESTERLY MID/UPPER
WESTERLIES, IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE TO OCCASIONAL EVOLUTION OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INTO AT
LEAST MID TO LATE EVENING.

..KERR.. 10/27/2025
 
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