Severe Weather Threat - November 29th-30th, 2022

[Equus]

Also have the long lived state crossing supercell really looking vicious west of Montgomery. Winds may be veering in parts of the warm sector but things have certainly decided to not quiet down yet

 

[Equus]

Also, PDS warning now on the cell south of Chatom

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Gone now, but that looked rough.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tornado warning. Baseball size hail. 3:16am!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Now a confirmed tornado.

 

[Sawmaster]

A prolific system that didn't quite reach it's possibilities. Had it;s interesting points with strong cells in close proximity, rapid development, cells falling apart just when they reached tornadogenesis, and ever-changing areas of activity. I wish my insomnia hadn't been acting up as I slept through chunks of this then tried to catch up when waking, only to have that happen again

Better this than a lot of casualties

 

[South AL Wx]

Now a confirmed tornado.

View attachment 15763

2 fatalities have been confirmed from that tornado in northern Montgomery County.

 

[JWard87]

A prolific system that didn't quite reach it's possibilities. Had it;s interesting points with strong cells in close proximity, rapid development, cells falling apart just when they reached tornadogenesis, and ever-changing areas of activity. I wish my insomnia hadn't been acting up as I slept through chunks of this then tried to catch up when waking, only to have that happen again

Better this than a lot of casualties

I get the line of thinking here, but the fatality number needs to be zero. Bar none.

I think this one definitely reached what was originally forecast. This would have fallen in line with what you stated had there been an upgrade beyond the MDT from the SPC.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[Equus]

Anyone get a loop of the Montgomery area tornado? Went to sleep like ten minutes before the most significant tornado of the event apparently

 

[Equus]

In many of these events (certainly not all though) we get caught off guard by how far east into AL that the threat continues even with marginal instability to work with when wind profiles are this impressive; if storms remain surface based with backed winds, I wouldn't let down guard into central AL for nasty leftovers spinning up a few surprises. For the warm sector, storm mode and junk convection is always a question so we'll see if we get the balance necessary for well spaced supercells, which would lead to a pretty unpleasant day in south-central Mississippi... then again, sometimes it only takes one

I don't know why, but every event where we're on the east edge of the risk has to have a Walker County QLCS spin-up, a tornado near Eutaw/Tuscaloosa, and the strongest tornado of the night in reach of Montgomery or that general part of the state; once again the nocturnal tornado spam has been an issue

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Another caveat was from making this go high risk or least te moderate risk would been worse , the cap wasn’t strong enough. Storms ignited to easily and got clustered close together .

 

[South AL Wx]

Anyone get a loop of the Montgomery area tornado? Went to sleep like ten minutes before the most significant tornado of the event apparently

I don't have a loop, but I saved this radar image from when I first noticed the CC drop over northern Montgomery County and the tornado was moving in my direction. Thankfully, it stayed a little north of us, but it was too close for comfort!

 

[Equus]

Wow that is way too close a call for sure, scary night

 

[Equus]

Preliminary EF1/110 on that; fatalities were from a large pine tree falling into a mobile home

 

[Equus]

Washington County/Tibbie area tornado preliminary EF2+ and Montgomery area fatal tornado upgraded to EF2, so we're winding up with at least two significant tornadoes

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Washington County/Tibbie area tornado preliminary EF2+ and Montgomery area fatal tornado upgraded to EF2, so we're winding up with at least two significant tornadoes

I see three EF2 tornadoes on wiki now.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Washington County/Tibbie area tornado preliminary EF2+ and Montgomery area fatal tornado upgraded to EF2, so we're winding up with at least two significant tornadoes

EF3+! tornadoes make up around 2% of all tornadoes and account for 85% of all tornado fatalities.

 

[atrainguy]

The Hollum LA tornado did some pretty bad damage.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like large swaths of the moderate risk area were devoid of severe reports.
While certainly not a busted event, I definitely expected higher-end supercell behavior and consistent severe weather/tornado production from at least 1 or 2 storms, something like the storm of the day on 12/10/21, storms A and B on 5/3/99, every storm on 4/27/11, etc.