Severe Weather Threat May 7-10, 2024

[wx_guy]

18z HRRR just starting to come in. Box sounding about an hour from now over the boxed area is averaging about 1200 projected DCAPE. Definitely expect some strong straight-line winds in extreme SE AL or S GA this afternoon.

 

[wx_guy]

And the discrete supercells near Jefferson county are still a go on the 18z HRRR around 7 or 8 PM. EDIT: Okay, I use "discrete" lightly...they congeal pretty quickly into a complex.

 

[wx_guy]

So the 18z HRRR is pretty much in for this event. The complex that's to form overnight has multiple areas (from Louisiana to Georgia) that have localized pockets of 70-95 mph gusts (I think 92 is the highest I found on the latest HRRR). Distinct bowing segment forms across the southern parts of these states and sweeps rapidly eastward.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[MoonBaby]

It is so so nasty feeling outside. Soupy Alabama summertime grossness. Which of course isn’t welcome when it’s supposed to storm (or ever in my opinion, I hate feeling like the air is water).

 

[Clancy]

It is so so nasty feeling outside. Soupy Alabama summertime grossness. Which of course isn’t welcome when it’s supposed to storm (or ever in my opinion, I hate feeling like the air is water).

Literally the worst part of the hot months! Makes it feel like I'm fixing to grow a moss beard.

 

[Clancy]

18Z NAM 3km is in with slightly different forecast from HRRR. Waits on more aggressive convection in Central AL until late night/early morning, and has it a bit farther north, moving into west-central GA by the morning hours. Would tend to think HRRR probably has it more right, but this isn't out of the question.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Guessing this is the outflow boundary.

 

[Clancy]

Guessing this is the outflow boundary. View attachment 26986

Guessing this is the more consequential boundary, and why I think the HRRR is probably right shunting activity further south. That said, CAPE has really built back in so who knows.

 

[wx_guy]

Large area in MS on the latest mesoanalysis has over 6000 CAPE and the HRRR wants to initiate storms there in the next hour or two. Lots of energy to work with.

 

[Clancy]

Large area in MS on the latest mesoanalysis has over 6000 CAPE and the HRRR wants to initiate storms there in the next hour or two. Lots of energy to work with.

Formula for downburst city.

 

[Bevo]

Won’t be super great if that storm merger happens on the way to DFW…

 

[MoonBaby]

Literally the worst part of the hot months! Makes it feel like I'm fixing to grow a moss beard.

I absolutely hate when moss beards appear. They are so hard to shave.
The feels like temperature on my phone (which may not be accurate) is 99 degrees.

 

[Clancy]

Columbia, TN tornado so far rated EF-3.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Columbia, TN tornado so far rated EF-3.

I can also add from NWSchat information that southwest Limestone Co AL near Brigadoon is EF3 prelim at 136 mph, and Henagar area is very prelim "at least" EF2, but they still haven't gotten through part of the track and mention that it could be upgraded.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Showers/storms forming around hoover.

 

[The Nino]

"The team looking at damage in Huntsville has reported a confirmed tornado track in the Five Points area in southeast Huntsville but is still assessing the intensity and track length into the Hampton Cove area."
https://www.al.com/news/2024/05/ef-3-tornado-confirmed-in-north-alabama-from-wednesday-storms.html

 

[atrainguy]

Portage, MI was rated EF2 (135mph) and Colon, MI (responsible for the Tornado Emergency) was rated EF2 (130mph).

 

[JPWX]

So umm was really not expecting this, but yet here we are.

By expecting, I mean not this early on in the day.

 

[Clancy]

So umm was really not expecting this, but yet here we are.

By expecting, I mean not this early on in the day.

Huh, wasn't expecting a watch, definitely not so early.