Kds86z
Member
Everything is on schedule. Per NWS NormanThe shear appears to be either delayed or much weaker than it was forecast to be. We'll see.
Everything is on schedule. Per NWS NormanThe shear appears to be either delayed or much weaker than it was forecast to be. We'll see.
Well especially in Kansas, you have storms right in the vicinity of very high STP and decent SRH but aren’t producing.The shear appears to be either delayed or much weaker than it was forecast to be. We'll see.
Yeah what’s up with Ks?Well especially in Kansas, you have storms right in the vicinity of very high STP and decent SRH but aren’t producing.
I think the OK sector shear is just delayed but will come tonight
Yeah... no. In the initial day one outlook, the SPC said to watch the 03 to 06z time frame for highest tornado potential. Its not even 23z yet.The shear appears to be either delayed or much weaker than it was forecast to be. We'll see.
BingoGuys, remember the low level jet doesn’t kick in until 6-7.
It’s no surprise storms are slow to produce because they aren’t forecasted to until later.
Everything is still expected and on schedule.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 187...189...190...
VALID 062253Z - 070030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 187, 189, 190 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES IN EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON MAINTAINING AT LEAST
QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS. QLCS TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY LINEAR SEGMENTS.
DISCUSSION...WINDS ALOFT HAVE REMAINED BACKED ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS
IN CENTRAL KANSAS QUASI-DISCRETE. VERY-LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS THUS FAR (REPORTS OF 2.5-3 IN.).
REGIONAL VAD PROFILES SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL JET AT 45-50 KTS CURRENTLY.
THE JET SHOULD INTENSIFY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN EASTERN
KANSAS. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER STORMS WILL REMAIN DISCRETE
BEYOND 00Z. CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THIS EVENING COULD BE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUCH THAT A MORE LINEAR MODE
DEVELOPS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY STRONG
TORNADOES, WILL DEPEND ON MAINTAINING DISCRETE STORMS. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DISCRETE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE DUE TO WARM ADVECTION. EVEN
WITH A MORE LINEAR MODE, HOWEVER, SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND QLCS
TORNADOES WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE.
..WENDT.. 05/06/2024
Yeah...no. I wasn't downplaying, I'm just watching mesanalysis and noticed that current observations are a little delayed compared to model runs. I would never.Yeah... no. In the initial day one outlook, the SPC said to watch the 03 to 06z time frame for highest tornado potential. Its not even 23z yet.
Perfect timing lol.
Yeah... no. In the initial day one outlook, the SPC said to watch the 03 to 06z time frame for highest tornado potential. Its not even 23z yet.
I do too! Would be much easier to read.I sure wish they'd give time in CDT (yeah I know it's Z -5)