Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[Kds86z]

The shear appears to be either delayed or much weaker than it was forecast to be. We'll see.

Everything is on schedule. Per NWS Norman

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

The shear appears to be either delayed or much weaker than it was forecast to be. We'll see.

Well especially in Kansas, you have storms right in the vicinity of very high STP and decent SRH but aren’t producing.

I think the OK sector shear is just delayed but will come tonight

 

[Maxis_s]

I'd keep an eye on the storm near Oakwood, OK right now. It might do something big eventually.

 

[Kds86z]

Well especially in Kansas, you have storms right in the vicinity of very high STP and decent SRH but aren’t producing.

I think the OK sector shear is just delayed but will come tonight

Yeah what’s up with Ks?

 

[Muwx]

The shear appears to be either delayed or much weaker than it was forecast to be. We'll see.

Yeah... no. In the initial day one outlook, the SPC said to watch the 03 to 06z time frame for highest tornado potential. Its not even 23z yet.

 

[jiharris0220]

Guys, remember the low level jet doesn’t kick in until 6-7.

It’s no surprise storms are slow to produce because they aren’t forecasted to until later.

Everything is still expected and on schedule.

 

[Kds86z]

Guys, remember the low level jet doesn’t kick in until 6-7.

It’s no surprise storms are slow to produce because they aren’t forecasted to until later.

Everything is still expected and on schedule.

Bingo

 

[cincywx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2024

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 187...189...190...

VALID 062253Z - 070030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 187, 189, 190 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES IN EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON MAINTAINING AT LEAST
QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS. QLCS TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY LINEAR SEGMENTS.

DISCUSSION...WINDS ALOFT HAVE REMAINED BACKED ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS
IN CENTRAL KANSAS QUASI-DISCRETE. VERY-LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS THUS FAR (REPORTS OF 2.5-3 IN.).
REGIONAL VAD PROFILES SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL JET AT 45-50 KTS CURRENTLY.
THE JET SHOULD INTENSIFY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN EASTERN
KANSAS. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER STORMS WILL REMAIN DISCRETE
BEYOND 00Z. CONTINUED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THIS EVENING COULD BE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUCH THAT A MORE LINEAR MODE
DEVELOPS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY STRONG
TORNADOES, WILL DEPEND ON MAINTAINING DISCRETE STORMS. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DISCRETE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE DUE TO WARM ADVECTION. EVEN
WITH A MORE LINEAR MODE, HOWEVER, SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND QLCS
TORNADOES WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE.

..WENDT.. 05/06/2024

New MD to answer questions about KS

 

[TornadoFan]

Y'all were talking about Kansas.

 

[cincywx]

Storm west of Putnam, OK is lagging behind the one near Oakwood and also developing an appendage.

 

[nativetoalaska]

I'd theorize that dewpoint depressions might play an underscored role in the development of these storms. The three cells that are currently ongoing in Oklahoma are experiencing depressions of roughly 20 degrees but will move into areas with 10 or so degrees of depression, and that number might close more with falling temperatures tonight, which would be better for development of tornadoes. Am I thinking about this the right way?

 

[Tanner]

Yeah... no. In the initial day one outlook, the SPC said to watch the 03 to 06z time frame for highest tornado potential. Its not even 23z yet.

Yeah...no. I wasn't downplaying, I'm just watching mesanalysis and noticed that current observations are a little delayed compared to model runs. I would never.

 

[Kds86z]

New MD to answer questions about KS

View attachment 26482

Perfect timing lol.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Yeah... no. In the initial day one outlook, the SPC said to watch the 03 to 06z time frame for highest tornado potential. Its not even 23z yet.

I sure wish they'd give time in CDT (yeah I know it's Z -5)

 

[TH2002]

The cell that originally formed near Mutual is trying again.

 

[TornadoFan]

Northern storm is really starting to hook again.

 

[TH2002]

Huh, also just noticed that there's a town in the path of that cell called "Kremlin". You learn something new everyday...

 

[JPWX]

I sure wish they'd give time in CDT (yeah I know it's Z -5)

I do too! Would be much easier to read.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Feels like the supercells are just needing a spark to go violent. Which will probably come soon. Good spacing and perfect structures

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tornado warning southwest of KVNX is starting to go off

**Strong couplet south of helena