Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

So here's a box sounding comprising most of central Oklahoma this evening (after dark). This is the HRRR at 12z. For reference, the SARS database that is on all of these SharpPy-based soundings has 13 entries that have 10 or greater STP; 12 of those resulted in confirmed significant (EF2+) tornadoes.

Hoping for the best today and that everyone remains safe.

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Do you guys think this could go 45% sig tornado if confidence in storm coverage increases? I do know they still mentioned some uncertainty with it so there's possibly potential for a higher outlook.
 
jiharris0220 said:
There’s really not much for me to add other than let’s hope this busts cataclysmicly, and to the people who are excited for this event (no one on here thankfully) to kindly get a more productive hobby.
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I can personally see both sides to that statement so true …. Me being an amateur chaser n severe weather enthusiast , kind like see mother natures power at work , but the downside is loss life property such …. Sucks
 
NorthGaWeather said:
They both collaborated on the outlook. I should switch the names around I guess as Edwards was the main forecaster with Broyles assisting. But this was a no-brainer IMO.
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Yeah this isn’t someone coming in with a super hot take, they said in the previous discussion that they considered it even then but were waiting for increased confidence. 2500-4000 CAPE and 300-500 SRH in an environment where supercells are going to be the preferred mode is a pretty obvious call no matter who the forecaster is.
 
Maxis_s said:
Do you guys think this could go 45% sig tornado if confidence in storm coverage increases? I do know they still mentioned some uncertainty with it so there's possibly potential for a higher outlook.
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Considering the main event won't be until after dark this evening, there's still a LOT of time for changes to the forecast, for better or for worse.
 
warneagle said:
Yeah this isn’t someone coming in with a super hot take, they said in the previous discussion that they considered it even then but were waiting for increased confidence. 2500-4000 CAPE and 300-500 SRH in an environment where supercells are going to be the preferred mode is a pretty obvious call no matter who the forecaster is.
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Exactly. I think even Greg Dial could’ve made this call.
 
Maxis_s said:
Do you guys think this could go 45% sig tornado if confidence in storm coverage increases? I do know they still mentioned some uncertainty with it so there's possibly potential for a higher outlook.
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I kind of doubt it just given that the storm coverage isn’t going to be that substantial. The 45% is probably better reserved for extreme cases like 4/27/11 where you’ve got a large number of simultaneous tornadic supercells (which probably isn’t going to be the case today).
 
warneagle said:
Yeah the main warm front is still south of there but if you look at the upstream soundings you can see the type of thermodynamics that are gonna be transported into that area in the next few hours.
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People are going to be surprised how rapidly the atmosphere is going to destabilize.
 
Hoping if this verifies that it only hits trees.
While it’s fun to watch outbreaks from afar, I never want them to hit people. Or even near people. Today’s my bday so I’m going to curl up in a ball and watch everything play out.
Stay safe everybody
 
warneagle said:
I kind of doubt it just given that the storm coverage isn’t going to be that substantial. The 45% is probably better reserved for extreme cases like 4/27/11 where you’ve got a large number of simultaneous tornadic supercells (which probably isn’t going to be the case today).
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Not out the question we see a 45 area added be honest …. North central Oklahoma where I would consider it . Let’s see how todays radar s start ….
 
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