• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

So I just *randomly* picked one location/point inside a large area of maxed-out STP on the color scale in central Oklahoma from the 13z HRRR. The STP (CIN) -- which is what the SARS analogs and bar plots use, is almost 14. To put that in perspective, there's only 3 soundings out of nearly 1900 in the SARS analog databased with a higher STP (and if it goes much higher, it'll eclipse even those). So we are in increasingly rarified air if these forecasts verify...

1715006247214.png
 
wx_guy said:
So I just *randomly* picked one location/point inside a large area of maxed-out STP on the color scale in central Oklahoma from the 13z HRRR. The STP (CIN) -- which is what the SARS analogs and bar plots use, is almost 14. To put that in perspective, there's only 3 soundings out of nearly 1900 in the SARS analog databased with a higher STP (and if it goes much higher, it'll eclipse even those). So we are in increasingly rarified air if these forecasts verify...

View attachment 26389
Click to expand...
A lot of areas even exceed STP 14, going as much as up to 25, although only cherry-picked soundings are going past 20. Still incredible.
 
wx_guy said:
So I just *randomly* picked one location/point inside a large area of maxed-out STP on the color scale in central Oklahoma from the 13z HRRR. The STP (CIN) -- which is what the SARS analogs and bar plots use, is almost 14. To put that in perspective, there's only 3 soundings out of nearly 1900 in the SARS analog databased with a higher STP (and if it goes much higher, it'll eclipse even those). So we are in increasingly rarified air if these forecasts verify...

View attachment 26389
Click to expand...
Man, if you gave me a pencil and said “draw me a skew-T and a hodograph for a violent tornado” I might not draw something that good.
 
Important note as we discuss today's event. While obviously a lot of concern regards supercellular activity, in environments like these, QLCS tors can be just as dangerous, especially after dark.
 
Clancy said:
There'll be a WX Twitter Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency party at about 1:30 PM, and tornadoes once the caffeine-fueled go to bed thinking the threat is over.
Click to expand...
No kidding. I can already hear a couple of people specifically in this thread that'll be calling a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency prematurely lol
 
Clancy said:
Important note as we discuss today's event. While obviously a lot of concern regards supercellular activity, in environments like these, QLCS tors can be just as dangerous, especially after dark.
Click to expand...

I wonder if they might consider expanding the MDT north/east a bit to potentially account for some of the QLCS tornado risk.
 
Some experimental product forecasts for this evening, fwiw. Some of the highest values off these products I can recall in both cases. Very high values off the SREF as well.
1715007255733.png1715007272950.png
1715007286855.png1715007376877.png
 
warneagle said:
I wonder if they might consider expanding the MDT north/east a bit to potentially account for some of the QLCS tornado risk.
Click to expand...
Certainly wouldn't be surprised, it could be a very potent event in that area, between winds and tornadoes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top