Top 10 all time in confirmed tornadoes so yeah I’d say soMarch 31 was the Little Rock/Keota/Wynn/Robinson outbreak, which was still a really bad one obviously. Huge too.
A lot of areas even exceed STP 14, going as much as up to 25, although only cherry-picked soundings are going past 20. Still incredible.So I just *randomly* picked one location/point inside a large area of maxed-out STP on the color scale in central Oklahoma from the 13z HRRR. The STP (CIN) -- which is what the SARS analogs and bar plots use, is almost 14. To put that in perspective, there's only 3 soundings out of nearly 1900 in the SARS analog databased with a higher STP (and if it goes much higher, it'll eclipse even those). So we are in increasingly rarified air if these forecasts verify...
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Man, if you gave me a pencil and said “draw me a skew-T and a hodograph for a violent tornado” I might not draw something that good.So I just *randomly* picked one location/point inside a large area of maxed-out STP on the color scale in central Oklahoma from the 13z HRRR. The STP (CIN) -- which is what the SARS analogs and bar plots use, is almost 14. To put that in perspective, there's only 3 soundings out of nearly 1900 in the SARS analog databased with a higher STP (and if it goes much higher, it'll eclipse even those). So we are in increasingly rarified air if these forecasts verify...
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No kidding. I can already hear a couple of people specifically in this thread that'll be calling a bust prematurely lolThere'll be a WX Twitter bust party at about 1:30 PM, and tornadoes once the caffeine-fueled go to bed thinking the threat is over.
Shhhhh… don’t summon them.No kidding. I can already hear a couple of people specifically in this thread that'll be calling a bust prematurely lol
Important note as we discuss today's event. While obviously a lot of concern regards supercellular activity, in environments like these, QLCS tors can be just as dangerous, especially after dark.
Certainly wouldn't be surprised, it could be a very potent event in that area, between winds and tornadoes.I wonder if they might consider expanding the MDT north/east a bit to potentially account for some of the QLCS tornado risk.
I was literally a plank instant away from posting that, but yes, not a good trend.View attachment 26394
Is it showing what I think it's showing...?
Yeah, may need an extension of the MDT to the Northeast or to even Northern KS.I was literally a plank instant away from posting that, but yes, not a good trend.