Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[UncleJuJu98]

Good grief... Hahahahaha

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Good grief... Hahahahaha

A few long tracked tornadoes and possibly a violent tornado or two may occur(4/27/11). What is so funny about that statement is he added a 45% hatched area for violent tornadoes at that time.

 

[TornadoFan]

Oh.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

A few long tracked tornadoes and possibly a violent tornado or two may occur(4/27/11). What is so funny about that statement is he added a 45% hatched area for violent tornadoes at that time.

IIRC he’s the only forecaster to ever use the 60% probabilistic on 4/7/2006.

 

[andyhb]

I will partially agree and partially disagree with that statement. While yes, it is true that it shouldn't matter the risk category and then anywhere that sees supercells tomorrow could get significant tornadoes, there is a certain "feel" that comes over the air when a high risk is issued. Secondly, many people, as has been shown by social science work here, actually believe that "enhanced" is stronger wording than "moderate". Thirdly, many people also believe that red (code red/stop sign/red light/emergency) is a stronger color than pink for emphasizing risk. Communication of these things is very complicated, and has to deal with the most complex thing of all -> the human brain.

With all that said, there is certainly a difference in terms of perception and overall coverage (media, social media, etc.) when a high risk is issued versus a moderate, because they are rare and they are saved for outbreak scenarios.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

IIRC he’s the only forecaster to ever use the 60% probabilistic on 4/7/2006.

Yeah, I remember that as well. However, while not a bust it did underperform.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

I will partially agree and partially disagree with that statement. While yes, it is true that it shouldn't matter the risk category and then anywhere that sees supercells tomorrow could get significant tornadoes, there is a certain "feel" that comes over the air when a high risk is issued. Secondly, many people, as has been shown by social science work here, actually believe that "enhanced" is stronger wording than "moderate". Thirdly, many people also believe that red (code red/stop sign/red light/emergency) is a stronger color than pink for emphasizing risk. Communication of these things is very complicated, and has to deal with the most complex thing of all -> the human brain.

With all that said, there is certainly a difference in terms of perception and overall coverage (media, social media, etc.) when a high risk is issued versus a moderate, because they are rare and they are saved for outbreak scenarios.

Well said, Andy. I can imagine a high risk triggers all hands on deck with EMAs and all WFOs, correct? Or does that happen with a moderate risk too?

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I will partially agree and partially disagree with that statement. While yes, it is true that it shouldn't matter the risk category and then anywhere that sees supercells tomorrow could get significant tornadoes, there is a certain "feel" that comes over the air when a high risk is issued. Secondly, many people, as has been shown by social science work here, actually believe that "enhanced" is stronger wording than "moderate". Thirdly, many people also believe that red (code red/stop sign/red light/emergency) is a stronger color than pink for emphasizing risk. Communication of these things is very complicated, and has to deal with the most complex thing of all -> the human brain.

With all that said, there is certainly a difference in terms of perception and overall coverage (media, social media, etc.) when a high risk is issued versus a moderate, because they are rare and they are saved for outbreak scenarios.

Pink and purple seem stronger than red in my mind. I am not sure if it is because of my love for math or what it is.

Edit

The 60% hatched area for violent tornadoes is blue and I find that to be less intimidating than the 30% pink hatched area and the 45% purple hatched area for strong to violent tornadoes.

 

[jiharris0220]

I will partially agree and partially disagree with that statement. While yes, it is true that it shouldn't matter the risk category and then anywhere that sees supercells tomorrow could get significant tornadoes, there is a certain "feel" that comes over the air when a high risk is issued. Secondly, many people, as has been shown by social science work here, actually believe that "enhanced" is stronger wording than "moderate". Thirdly, many people also believe that red (code red/stop sign/red light/emergency) is a stronger color than pink for emphasizing risk. Communication of these things is very complicated, and has to deal with the most complex thing of all -> the human brain.

With all that said, there is certainly a difference in terms of perception and overall coverage (media, social media, etc.) when a high risk is issued versus a moderate, because they are rare and they are saved for outbreak scenarios.

Yea, it’s kinda like the same thing as saying “there’s no difference between a high end ef4 and ef5.

While yes that may be correct, but the level of reactions are far stronger when a tornado is rated ef5 rather than strong ef4.

 

[andyhb]

There is something about the human psyche that really clues in to the highest end of whatever categorical scale you can think of, the worst of the worst if you will (EF5 tornado, Category 5 hurricane, etc). You can't ignore that.

 

[Fred Gossage]

There is something about the human psyche that really clues in to the highest end of whatever categorical scale you can think of, the worst of the worst if you will (EF5 tornado, Category 5 hurricane, etc). You can't ignore that.

Hence the reason why an unsettling number of people flat out ignore everything from Moderate down when a High Risk is drawn.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

2% Marginal...Green
5% Slight...Brown
10% Enhanced...Yellow
15% Moderate...Red
30% High...Blue
45% High...Pink
60% High...Purple

This is just my opinion.

 

[Clancy]

Hence the reason why an unsettling number of people flat out ignore everything from Moderate down when a High Risk is drawn.

Like Andy said, the titles of the risk levels probably have quite a bit to do with that. Granted, there have been efforts to combat that complacency with increased usage of numerical levels alongside, or instead of the titular levels, especially on news stations and the like. That said, I would still like to maybe see a revision to the titles at some point when the SPC has some time to test that out, using some names that are more appropriately scaled, relatively unambiguous and also applicable/easily translatable to different languages. But like others have said, something about those pink HIGH contours just hit different.

 

[TH2002]

Yeah, I remember that as well. However, while not a bust it did underperform.

Assuming you're referring to 4/7/2006... 56 tornadoes and 10 fatalities? Not a Super Outbreak tier event, sure, but not exactly an underperformer either. Plus, keep in mind that this was at the height of "La Plata syndrome" and the Gallatin tornado probably should have been left at F4.

 

[jiharris0220]

Back during the march 31/april 1 tornado outbreak, the worst I was feeling was a bit of unease when they issued a moderate.

But once those two high risk were placed, my heart rate went up ten fold and I was overcome with an oppressive feeling of dread/doom for the people in those areas.

It’s like watching a cat5 storm about to make landfall, you just can’t help but image how horrific the aftermath is going to be.

There’s a reason why these are so rare and why the meteorological agencies are very strict in pushing the big red button.

 

[SGFmoTwister]

Boy, I remember the Weather Channel (not too long after "Twister" was released, maybe Spring '97) had people all over for a supposed 'high risk' day. Wichita, Dallas, OKC, etc. and it was a huge bust! (Thankfully, for all the people who those tornadoes might've impacted.) Still, the Weather Channel had egg on its collective face for some time afterward.

 

[Muwx]

This is the most Twitter hype for a high risk I’ve seen in a long time, specifically from people who don’t normally hype things up on Twitter

 

[TornadoFan]

I'm sure people are on the edge of their seats waiting for the 00Z HRRR.

 

[Maxis_s]

Place your bets!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I'm sure people are on the edge of their seats waiting for the 00Z HRRR.

Everybody is gunna be upset when it's a downtrend and not supercells lined up producing wedges and maxed out updraft swaths lol.