Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

Somewhat unrelated, but after trying my luck at buying a package from Ukraine (it has since arrived safely in Queens) I now bit the bullet on a package coming from OKC... with tomorrow inbound. I guess if the news comes in that a large postal center was destroyed by a tornado in OKC, I'll know where that package went...
 
Can't really argue that the 00z HRRR is anything but a high risk verbatim given storm coverage, convective mode and an extremely dangerous period post-00z where convective inhibition looks very slow to take over.
 
I would certainly watch for now cast trends for tomorrow to see if convective initiation begins in central Oklahoma during the evening hours.

Because as of now, the EML in central Oklahoma tomorrow looks pitifully weak to say the least.
 
Tempestas Tonitrua said:
Well said, Andy. I can imagine a high risk triggers all hands on deck with EMAs and all WFOs, correct? Or does that happen with a moderate risk too?
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A lower risk category may bring on a lot of additional staff as well. It really just depends on the needs of that office. But yes, on days where significant severe weather is expected, it will be fully staffed.

For EM’s, a slight risk may be all hands on deck because they’re the only person. Some may not even activate their EOCs until after something occurs, and they just monitor the event. Some are fully operational with quite a few ESFs staffing positions. It really depends on what the local emergency operations plan dictates for that city/county.

I agree that a high risk carries a certain weight with the citizen. However, most people that are ignorant about weather will consider it a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency if their house isn’t destroyed. It is what it is.

Interestingly, I’ve interviewed many people during surveys and it was pretty split between these three scenarios. They were aware severe weather was possible and knew the risk category. They were aware severe weather was possible but couldn’t tell you what one of the risk categories was. Or, they had no clue what the weather forecast was for the day.
 
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jiharris0220 said:
The nam has a forcing bias in which convection initiating along any sort of boundary will instantly go linear.

It literally has two rows of QLCS because it has an entire confluence band out in front of the dry line to go linear due to said forcing bias.
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hwat
 
What are the possible fail modes of this event, or "flies in the ointment" as Trey likes to say?
I wanna be optimistic about this.
 
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