Good grief... Hahahahaha
Good grief... Hahahahaha
IIRC he’s the only forecaster to ever use the 60% probabilistic on 4/7/2006.A few long tracked tornadoes and possibly a violent tornado or two may occur(4/27/11). What is so funny about that statement is he added a 45% hatched area for violent tornadoes at that time.
Yeah, I remember that as well. However, while not a bust it did underperform.IIRC he’s the only forecaster to ever use the 60% probabilistic on 4/7/2006.
Well said, Andy. I can imagine a high risk triggers all hands on deck with EMAs and all WFOs, correct? Or does that happen with a moderate risk too?I will partially agree and partially disagree with that statement. While yes, it is true that it shouldn't matter the risk category and then anywhere that sees supercells tomorrow could get significant tornadoes, there is a certain "feel" that comes over the air when a high risk is issued. Secondly, many people, as has been shown by social science work here, actually believe that "enhanced" is stronger wording than "moderate". Thirdly, many people also believe that red (code red/stop sign/red light/emergency) is a stronger color than pink for emphasizing risk. Communication of these things is very complicated, and has to deal with the most complex thing of all -> the human brain.
With all that said, there is certainly a difference in terms of perception and overall coverage (media, social media, etc.) when a high risk is issued versus a moderate, because they are rare and they are saved for outbreak scenarios.
Pink and purple seem stronger than red in my mind. I am not sure if it is because of my love for math or what it is.I will partially agree and partially disagree with that statement. While yes, it is true that it shouldn't matter the risk category and then anywhere that sees supercells tomorrow could get significant tornadoes, there is a certain "feel" that comes over the air when a high risk is issued. Secondly, many people, as has been shown by social science work here, actually believe that "enhanced" is stronger wording than "moderate". Thirdly, many people also believe that red (code red/stop sign/red light/emergency) is a stronger color than pink for emphasizing risk. Communication of these things is very complicated, and has to deal with the most complex thing of all -> the human brain.
With all that said, there is certainly a difference in terms of perception and overall coverage (media, social media, etc.) when a high risk is issued versus a moderate, because they are rare and they are saved for outbreak scenarios.
Yea, it’s kinda like the same thing as saying “there’s no difference between a high end ef4 and ef5.I will partially agree and partially disagree with that statement. While yes, it is true that it shouldn't matter the risk category and then anywhere that sees supercells tomorrow could get significant tornadoes, there is a certain "feel" that comes over the air when a high risk is issued. Secondly, many people, as has been shown by social science work here, actually believe that "enhanced" is stronger wording than "moderate". Thirdly, many people also believe that red (code red/stop sign/red light/emergency) is a stronger color than pink for emphasizing risk. Communication of these things is very complicated, and has to deal with the most complex thing of all -> the human brain.
With all that said, there is certainly a difference in terms of perception and overall coverage (media, social media, etc.) when a high risk is issued versus a moderate, because they are rare and they are saved for outbreak scenarios.
Hence the reason why an unsettling number of people flat out ignore everything from Moderate down when a High Risk is drawn.There is something about the human psyche that really clues in to the highest end of whatever categorical scale you can think of, the worst of the worst if you will (EF5 tornado, Category 5 hurricane, etc). You can't ignore that.
Like Andy said, the titles of the risk levels probably have quite a bit to do with that. Granted, there have been efforts to combat that complacency with increased usage of numerical levels alongside, or instead of the titular levels, especially on news stations and the like. That said, I would still like to maybe see a revision to the titles at some point when the SPC has some time to test that out, using some names that are more appropriately scaled, relatively unambiguous and also applicable/easily translatable to different languages. But like others have said, something about those pink HIGH contours just hit different.Hence the reason why an unsettling number of people flat out ignore everything from Moderate down when a High Risk is drawn.
Assuming you're referring to 4/7/2006... 56 tornadoes and 10 fatalities? Not a Super Outbreak tier event, sure, but not exactly an underperformer either. Plus, keep in mind that this was at the height of "La Plata syndrome" and the Gallatin tornado probably should have been left at F4.Yeah, I remember that as well. However, while not a bust it did underperform.
Everybody is gunna be upset when it's a downtrend and not supercells lined up producing wedges and maxed out updraft swaths lol.I'm sure people are on the edge of their seats waiting for the 00Z HRRR.