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Severe Weather Threat May 20-21, 2025

zath said:
Not trying to be combative, but what model(s) are you basing this off of? Nothing I have seen shows the LLJ improving conditions, aside from a wind threat.

CAPE looks great across the area, but the lapse rates are poor (and expected to get worse per SPC Meso Analysis) so storms are struggling to take advantage of the CAPE.
Click to expand...
It’s pretty much a given and established that any sort of LLJ (Nocturnal or SLP based) rapidly increase Low level shear.
 
zath said:
Not trying to be combative, but what model(s) are you basing this off of? Nothing I have seen shows the LLJ improving conditions, aside from a wind threat.

CAPE looks great across the area, but the lapse rates are poor (and expected to get worse per SPC Meso Analysis) so storms are struggling to take advantage of the CAPE.
Click to expand...
Every model across the board both operational and cam shows wind velocities within the LLJ increasing to over 35knots at 7pm.

Helicity values resulting from that will increase at or above 300m^2/s^2 where PBL wind vectors are the least directional to the LLJ.

Any discrete supercell out ahead of the QLCS will then have the greatest chance of producing a significant tornado.
 
Tennie said:
A tornado warning has been issued for the cell just southwest of Mount Pleasant, Tennessee:

View attachment 42759
Click to expand...

Right after I posted this, a lightning bolt struck close enough to me that the thunder caused me to nearly jump out of my chair!:eek:
 
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