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Severe Weather Threat May 20-21, 2025

I know I'm going to have people who disagree with me, but I still do not see anything in the recent runs when it comes to SRH and shear (especially at the low level) that suggests there should be an upgrade to MDT, especially when you stack up the kinematics for today against the MDT risk kinematics we saw yesterday and the day before.

If, the SPC does upgrade to MDT, I will more than happy come in here later today and eat crow, but I still firmly believe that there's nothing in the soundings I looked at this morning that suggests an upgrade is necessary.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I know I'm going to have people who disagree with me, but I still do not see anything in the recent runs when it comes to SRH and shear (especially at the low level) that suggests there should be an upgrade to MDT, especially when you stack up the kinematics for today against the MDT risk kinematics we saw yesterday and the day before.

If, the SPC does upgrade to MDT, I will more than happy come in here later today and eat crow, but I still firmly believe that there's nothing in the soundings I looked at this morning that suggests an upgrade is necessary.
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I could see a MDT if they had high confidence, but storm mode is the big question here and I'm not sure that question will be resolved until the storms are happening. Kinematics are plenty, especially with the instability we'll have, but what storms form where will make or break things today.
 
Clancy said:
I could see a MDT if they had high confidence, but storm mode is the big question here and I'm not sure that question will be resolved until the storms are happening. Kinematics are plenty, especially with the instability we'll have, but what storms form where will make or break things today.
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The updraft swaths on the latest HRRR is very concerning. If we see a moderate I'm fairly confident it'll be for parts of Alabama
 
US_Highway15 said:
I know I'm going to have people who disagree with me, but I still do not see anything in the recent runs when it comes to SRH and shear (especially at the low level) that suggests there should be an upgrade to MDT, especially when you stack up the kinematics for today against the MDT risk kinematics we saw yesterday and the day before.

If, the SPC does upgrade to MDT, I will more than happy come in here later today and eat crow, but I still firmly believe that there's nothing in the soundings I looked at this morning that suggests an upgrade is necessary.
Click to expand...
If they did go moderate which I could see it wind driven
 
My son does weather for the Air Force. He’s in Wyoming, but he sent me this and said dark green is the highest it goes. He told me to be careful this evening and watch the weather close (like I haven’t his entire childhood lol). He normally doesn’t send us stuff like this so it has me more anxious than normal.

IMG_2842.png
 
The Lapse Rates are poor to say the least. I don’t see this performing in any meaningful manner. We may get a storm here or there that can manage to produce a brief tornado but we won’t see anything like 2 days ago. Also I think due to this fact a moderate is off the table, I expect them to keep it enhanced.
 
Bulkshear said:
The Lapse Rates are poor to say the least. I don’t see this performing in any meaningful manner. We may get a storm here or there that can manage to produce a brief tornado but we won’t see anything like 2 days ago. Also I think due to this fact a moderate is off the table, I expect them to keep it enhanced.
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Yeah, personally I don’t want anything to happen, this season has been absolutely exhausting.
 
Bulkshear said:
I don’t see this performing in any meaningful manner.
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In respect to what? Tornadoes? Wind?
Bulkshear said:
We may get a storm here or there that can manage to produce a brief tornado but we won’t see anything like 2 days ago.
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No one ever said there would be multiple strong/violent tornadoes on the ground like Sunday. This has always been more of a wind driven risk, as 45% days don’t grow on trees.
 
Sky_I565 said:
Monroe Co. MS
View attachment 42658
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Morning AFD from MEG: "A brief lull in thunderstorm activity will occur late-morning and
last into the early afternoon hours. Gusty southwest winds will
aid in rapid atmospheric recovery with the HREF depicting SBCAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/kg by 1PM. In addition, dewpoints will
remain in the low 70s with bulk shear around 50 kts. On paper,
this environment favors upscale supercellular growth with all
severe weather hazards at play. However, further digging reveals
one fail mode for today's storms: lack luster mid level lapse
rates. In fact, the HREF only paints a 20% chance of 700-500 mb
lapse rates exceeding 6.0 C/km today. This will be a limiting
factor for storms." Looking at the lapse rates from this sounding, they do exceed 6.0 today. and the 10z HRRR has same thing.
(and yes, I know this 10z HRRR sounding for Monroe County is a little "contaminated", but whatever)
 

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NorthGaWeather said:
In respect to what? Tornadoes? Wind?

No one ever said there would be multiple strong/violent tornadoes on the ground like Sunday. This has always been more of a wind driven risk, as 45% days don’t grow on trees.
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Neither did I smart guy.
NorthGaWeather said:
In respect to what? Tornadoes? Wind?

No one ever said there would be multiple strong/violent tornadoes on the ground like Sunday. This has always been more of a wind driven risk, as 45% days don’t grow on trees.
Click to expand...
Neither did I smart guy… When did I say multiple rounds of strong or violent tornadoes? Stop putting words in my mouth dude all I was simply saying are the storms are gonna have a hard time getting rooted for any type of tornado development whatsoever. Yes, there is a wind risk, but I don’t think they’re gonna go moderate for that either.
 
JPWX said:
Morning AFD from MEG: "A brief lull in thunderstorm activity will occur late-morning and
last into the early afternoon hours. Gusty southwest winds will
aid in rapid atmospheric recovery with the HREF depicting SBCAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/kg by 1PM. In addition, dewpoints will
remain in the low 70s with bulk shear around 50 kts. On paper,
this environment favors upscale supercellular growth with all
severe weather hazards at play. However, further digging reveals
one fail mode for today's storms: lack luster mid level lapse
rates. In fact, the HREF only paints a 20% chance of 700-500 mb
lapse rates exceeding 6.0 C/km today. This will be a limiting
factor for storms." Looking at the lapse rates from this sounding, they do exceed 6.0 today. and the 10z HRRR has same thing.
(and yes, I know this 10z HRRR sounding for Monroe County is a little "contaminated", but whatever)
Click to expand...
How about that, poor lapse rates…Sorry JPWX I had to use part of your post to prove my point to someone being petulant.
 
Bulkshear said:
How about that, poor lapse rates…Sorry JPWX I had to use part of your post to prove my point to someone being petulant.
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Here we go, petulant. Pretty bold for a guy that’s been here 2 months. You do know that models are not gospel or written in stone, right? Live by the model, get burnt by them.
 
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