Severe Weather Threat May 20-21, 2025

[Clancy]

NAM 3km sounding for tomorrow evening close to home, around Marietta, Georgia. A pretty solid environment, this far east anyway. NAM seems to think a more aggressive environment will be in place north of I-20 in Georgia, compared to the HRRR.

 

[JPWX]

For those who have access to Pivotal Weather Plus, would you mind posting a sounding at hour 29 from the 18z RRFS in the vicinity of Monroe County or Northeast MS?

 

[Sky_I565]

For those who have access to Pivotal Weather Plus, would you mind posting a sounding at hour 29 from the 18z RRFS in the vicinity of Monroe County or Northeast MS?

That's a big 10-4

 

[JPWX]

That's a big 10-4

View attachment 42593

Yeah. Surprised it's not PDS, but still it shows a volatile setup. The 18z RRFS is quite worrisome. I agree with @tennessee storm chaser on the potential Moderate Risk upgrade tomorrow.

And Thank You

 

[Tennie]

Tomorrow looks to be (potentially) the final day of this nearly week-long outbreak sequence. We shall see whether it ends with a bang, a whimper, or somewhere in between...

 

[AJS]

Tomorrow looks to be (potentially) the final day of this nearly week-long outbreak sequence. We shall see whether it ends with a bang, a whimper, or somewhere in between...

With Dixie Alley, you truly never know what’s going to happen.

 

[ColdFront]

With Dixie Alley, you truly never know what’s going to happen.

Where is KevinH when we need him to tell us about Dixie

 

[AJS]

Where is KevinH when we need him to tell us about Dixie

From what i’ve seen, tomorrow could actually be a pretty potent day. I’m a bit more worried for tomorrow than I was for today to be honest.

 

[Sky_I565]

Yeah. Surprised it's not PDS, but still it shows a volatile setup. The 18z RRFS is quite worrisome. I agree with @tennessee storm chaser on the potential Moderate Risk upgrade tomorrow.

And Thank You

Your very welcome!

 

[NorthGaWeather]

NAM 3km sounding for tomorrow evening close to home, around Marietta, Georgia. A pretty solid environment, this far east anyway. NAM seems to think a more aggressive environment will be in place north of I-20 in Georgia, compared to the HRRR.
View attachment 42578

Tomorrow has potential west of I-85. The ‘01 BMX 18z sounding was during a decent outbreak with an F-4 in North Central/East AL and two killer tornadoes in North Alabama.

I haven’t looked to see if it’s a decent analog though.

 

[Brice W]

@KevinH ”Dixie doesn’t care about the outlook, Dixie does what it wants when it wants.” It’s a perfect motto for it.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Where is KevinH when we need him to tell us about Dixie

Yeah , Dixie don’t play by the rules lol….

 

[Tennie]

@KevinH ”Dixie doesn’t care about the outlook, Dixie does what it wants when it wants.” It’s a perfect motto for it.

Or as I like to put it, "Welcome to Dixie Alley, where the rules are made up and the climatology doesn't matter!"

 

[ColdFront]

Yeah , Dixie don’t play by the rules lol….

Well you know Dixie may Dixie because she’s known to Dixie. Don’t be shocked if EF5 mega violent wedges start dropping out of the sky in places meteorologists didn’t think possible because the earth is going to start doing stuff we didn’t know was possible!!

That’s my other favorite Kevin saying

 

[Kds86z]

@KevinH ”Dixie doesn’t care about the outlook, Dixie does what it wants when it wants.” It’s a perfect motto for it.

Where’s he been? He ok? Been since month ago.. @Brice W

 

[Kds86z]

Where’s he been? He ok? Been since month ago.. @Brice W

Hope he’s ok :/

 

[UncleJuJu98]

l

Hope he’s ok :/

He's usually not on here unless there's a Georgia threat I don't think

 

[Kds86z]

l
He's usually not on here unless there's a Georgia threat I don't think

Ohh ok @UncleJuJu98 thanks

 

[AJS]

How likely is it for a moderate to be issued for tomorrow? Based on what i’ve seen, i’m honestly more worried for tomorrow than I was for today.

 

[JPWX]

Well, based on the 00z HRRR, we have some not so nice looking updraft helicity tracks going over yours truly and this sounding over Eastern Monroe County. Plus a 75 contour on the Significant Tornado Ingredients. Waiting to compare the 00z HRRR with the next full run of the RRFS.

I'm not seeing anything that would significantly limit the overall threat tomorrow.