Severe Weather Threat May 20-21, 2025

[Clancy]

How likely is it for a moderate to be issued for tomorrow? Based on what i’ve seen, i’m honestly more worried for tomorrow than I was for today.

Possible but I doubt it happens immediately; it's an unusual and concerning setup but doesn't quite feel like slam-dunk MDT-caliber in terms of absolute confidence. That's just my gander, though. I'm definitely fairly concerned, and 00Z HRRR doesn't assuage that at all. Storm mode seems like the big question and biggest uncertainty that could substantially influence the outcome of tomorrow.

 

[JPWX]

BTW North MS has had 93 tornadoes in May with 59 of those occurring during the PM hours and 34 of those during the AM hours.

 

[Clancy]

00Z CAM suite. While there's some timing differences, they're pretty much all on-board with the same solution. All of them expect a potent QLCS capable of all hazards. NSSL is once again quite troubling, though each of them have at least a little discrete action going on, particularly over parts of Arkansas and western TN/northern MS. Interested in hearing what SPC thinks in the morning.

 

[vemir]

 

[US_Highway15]

Two things.

One, I don't think tomorrow is worthy of a MDT. Much like today, storm mode remains the big question, and there doesn't seem to be a high chance we get discrete cells to start out with. Also, does the morning convention get out early enough to where the atmosphere has the chance to reload before the main show begins. Think SPC remains ENH, unless HRRR ramps it up in the morning.

Two, not gonna lie, I'm starting to feel that severe storm fatigue, and I'm only an enthusiast behind a desk commenting and watching these storms play out on radar.

 

[Kim30]

Brad Travis is concerned about tomorrow's threat. He explained everything pretty well.

Skip to the 5:50 mark

 

[NorthGaWeather]

If this goes MDT, it’ll be for wind in my opinion. Concerning look for the TN Valley into North GA, depending on storm mode. If it’s more discrete then tornado threat obviously becomes a bigger issue.

 

[Sky_I565]

Well, based on the 00z HRRR, we have some not so nice looking updraft helicity tracks going over yours truly and this sounding over Eastern Monroe County. Plus a 75 contour on the Significant Tornado Ingredients. Waiting to compare the 00z HRRR with the next full run of the RRFS.

I'm not seeing anything that would significantly limit the overall threat tomorrow.

Monroe Co. MS

 

[Clancy]

If this goes MDT, it’ll be for wind in my opinion. Concerning look for the TN Valley into North GA, depending on storm mode. If it’s more discrete then tornado threat obviously becomes a bigger issue.

Bad day for trampolines and lawn flamingos across the Southeast.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Wow, the red area literally looks like a heart.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Two things.

One, I don't think tomorrow is worthy of a MDT. Much like today, storm mode remains the big question, and there doesn't seem to be a high chance we get discrete cells to start out with. Also, does the morning convention get out early enough to where the atmosphere has the chance to reload before the main show begins. Think SPC remains ENH, unless HRRR ramps it up in the morning.

Two, not gonna lie, I'm starting to feel that severe storm fatigue, and I'm only an enthusiast behind a desk commenting and watching these storms play out on radar.

I disagree. I see a moserate
Coming out . Some runs short range has shown convection clearing

 

[KCweatherboy]

They kept the enhanced with the new day 1 although it is bigger than it was. More notably being further south in MS/AL than it previously was.

 

[Jbop]

Looks like the SPC was considering higher probs.


"
But the aforementioned relative
decrease in mid-level winds and muted lapse rates lower confidence
on significant severe wind and greater tornado probability
highlights."

 

[Equus]

Honestly convective mode evolution gives me pause on threats beyond the clearly likely widespread wind damage, feels like a mixed mode whack-a-mole tornado warnings embedded in bowing clusters kind of day, at least down this way. Any supercells that do form will have my solid attention though. Not too often that we get those in the final third of May

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Looks like the SPC was considering higher probs.


"
But the aforementioned relative
decrease in mid-level winds and muted lapse rates lower confidence
on significant severe wind and greater tornado probabilit

Looks like the SPC was considering higher probs.


"
But the aforementioned relative
decrease in mid-level winds and muted lapse rates lower confidence
on significant severe wind and greater tornado probability
highlights."

I can see them going moderate next update , they cam
Ever so close of one with this update …

 

[N4GKS]

I predict the Convective Outlook will go Moderate for North Alabama tomorrow. I am not one to over react, but this one looks to pretty bad. The sheer is going to be high, and no rain to reduce the tornado threat.

 

[N4GKS]

Honestly convective mode evolution gives me pause on threats beyond the clearly likely widespread wind damage, feels like a mixed mode whack-a-mole tornado warnings embedded in bowing clusters kind of day, at least down this way. Any supercells that do form will have my solid attention though. Not too often that we get those in the final third of May

It’s going to Moderate. Just watch and wait.

 

[N4GKS]

I can see them going moderate next update , they cam
Ever so close of one with this update …

I agree.

 

[Clancy]

Last several runs of the HRRR, but especially 08Z, wowsers.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Last several runs of the HRRR, but especially 08Z, wowsers.
View attachment 42662

Wtc is that. My gosh, is the HRRR pulling a fast one lol. That would definitely require a upgrade to moderate lol