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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

lake.effect said:
Crazy night last night. Safe to say the HRRR solution mostly verified?

For Today, we've still got a mixed bag with models.

HRRR has a bona fide outbreak for E OK, far N TX, W MO AND W AR.
NAM is more bullish with the capping and keeps outbreak potential low, particularly in OK
RAP appears more in line with HRRR although due to the low resolution it's hard to tell how is handles tornadogensis in specific threat areas.

All 3 models appear to be upping the parameter space in N TX (centered around Dallas). Will need to watched closely.
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So the run just previous to the ones you are referencing now, I believe, quite literally had it swapped. NAM was going for an outbreak and the HRRR was calling for little to no convection even occurring in North TX. So I wouldn’t rely on the models for a telltale picture on today.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
09z rap is bullish on parameter space and convection for Mississippi and Alabama. Tommrow. 12z HRRR is coming out now
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Suprised there is not a 30 percent hatched hail threat be honest , over the center of
The 10 percent t hatched tornado threat , steep
Lapse rates . Nearly off chart
 
Ah, the perils of being in a different time zone to everyone else and not having the time to reply until the usefulness of said reply is long past. I wonder if we could use a 'general tornadoes discussion thread' for things that aren't directly about current events or don't fit our existing threads.

Aaron Rider said:
I thought several of those were nighttime tornadoes, though?
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Most large events have at least some tornadoes at night, something I suspect is understated for older ones. May 3 1999 is 'the' plains outbreak for many people and had quite a lot at night.

The problem is: what is a classic, high(er) end plains outbreak? I think most people's expectations are set by 90, 91 and 99, of which the first two had most of their notable tornadoes in daylight. But there's been some night outbreaks, like 25/5/55. I've my pet idea that plains outbreaks tend not to have quite the same combination of geographical spread and intensity as those elsewhere, but that's based on... not much. I find the more you think about this the less clear the answer is. Especially when you look at older outbreaks and wonder whether the 'fewer days, larger outbreaks' paper has something to it. Or you start thinking about whether the diurnal predominant climatology is due to smaller events. It becomes hair tearing.

I look for something with more spread that, say, Greensburg 07 even if the numbers of sigtors are similar. That was a genuine 'storm of the day' event. 9/5/16 wouldn't quite meet my idea of a major event in terms with its small cluster of notable tornadoes in S OK and everything else off in NE, it fit the enhanced it was forecast as. 16/11/15 fits better as a contiguous outbreak (but no-one makes long-term plans for a storm chasing trip in November).

It'll be interesting to see the numbers that eventually shake out of this outbreak, IMO the somewhat circumspect forecast was reasonable, and it was towards but not at the ceiling. One thing's for sure though, the main event by intensity, if not by numbers, was at night.
 
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2025 has incredibly violent so far... What has been happening and why?
 
AJS said:

Damage from Plevna. Hard to make out exactly what’s being shown, but without a doubt shows some significant damage.
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The first minute is the same home everyone has been showing, allegedly on the outskirts of Plevna, then at 1 minute switches to the middle of town, W. 3rd Ave at Main St. The trailer home on the north side was destroyed, but it looks like the structure homes visible are still standing. The church and the wood home on the north side of W. 3rd a block to the west have been seen on Twitter as still intact.
 
OH-IOan said:
Just woke up to my Wikipedia talk page blowing up about a tornado hitting near Greensburg. Is this true? Also, did that DFW tornado last night drop in the metro?
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Read through the thread and see what you missed. I am in the process of doing that myself. When you click the link to read a forum thread, it will take you to the last post you saw previously, which makes reading through everything you missed super easy.
 
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