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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

Today is going to be another big day....

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...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern
Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather
hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong
to intense), very large hail, and severe winds.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward
from the Rockies across the Plains through the period. Within the
base of the trough, an embedded shortwave trough and accompanying
70-kt midlevel speed maximum will overspread the southern and
central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen over
north-central Oklahoma, while a focused low-level jet gradually
strengthens along/east of a dryline extending southward from the
surface cyclone (west of the I-35 corridor).

...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Along/east of the dryline, rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s
dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying an EML
will contribute to strong/extreme surface-based buoyancy -- aided by
diurnal heating within cloud breaks. Ascent along the dryline,
augmented by the increasing midlevel ascent, will support convective
development during the early afternoon west of the I-35 corridor.
Storms should quickly intensify into a mix of supercells (from far
southern KS southward) and organized clusters/line segments (further
north) as they encounter the extreme instability and 50+ kt of
effective shear. All severe hazards will be possible with this
activity, including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
(some possibly strong to intense).

Similarly, warm-sector storm development is expected farther east
across eastern Oklahoma and vicinity, given weak inhibition, rich
boundary-layer moisture, and the aforementioned large-scale ascent.
Despite the potential for scattered to numerous storms, the high-end
environment will support long-track, semi-discrete supercells and
organized clusters capable of all severe hazards. While overall
convective evolution is somewhat uncertain, a 50-kt low-level jet
and related large clockwise-curved hodographs (200-300+ 0-1km SRH)
should support an increasing risk of strong/intense tornadoes during
the late afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will generally
spread/develop east-northeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley
into the overnight hours, and gradual upscale growth into several
organized clusters is possible -- with a continued all-hazards
severe risk.

...Southern Appalachians...
Along the northern periphery of shortwave ridging over the
Southeast, a midlevel jet streak will cross the southern
Appalachians during the afternoon. Here, an influx of steep midlevel
lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will yield strong
surface-based instability along/south of a warm front draped across
the region. Scattered thunderstorms will spread east-southeastward
along/south of the front from TN into the southern Appalachians,
where the favorable buoyancy and around 40-50 kt of effective shear
will promote organization into clusters and a couple splitting
supercell structures. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible
with the strongest storms.

..Weinman/Darrow.. 05/19/2025
Click to expand...
 
We're officially at 105 official tornado reports since Thursday, May 14th. If this stretch is counted as the same outbreak sequence (there was only one tornado report on Saturday), that would officially make 2025 the fourth year on record with 3 or more 100+ tornado outbreaks. The other years are 2004, 2011, and 2024. That would also make ten 100+ tornado outbreaks this decade, which ties it with the 2000s for the most 100+ outbreaks in a decade. However, this decade achieved the record in less than half the time. On average, outbreaks are getting larger, more intense, and more frequent.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
We're officially at 105 official tornado reports since Thursday, May 14th. If this stretch is counted as the same outbreak sequence (there was only one tornado report on Saturday), that would officially make 2025 the fourth year on record with 3 or more 100+ tornado outbreaks. The other years are 2004, 2011, and 2024. That would also make ten 100+ tornado outbreaks this decade, which ties it with the 2000s for the most 100+ outbreaks in a decade. However, this decade achieved the record in less than half the time. On average, outbreaks are getting larger, more intense, and more frequent.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree with your conclusion, but the increase is mostly due just to a heightened awareness and the internet
 
Kds86z said:
Obv in a potent pattern. Today and tomorrow could be ugly the way things been going. At a loss for words witnessing greensburg storm 2025 version. The ef3 in St. Louis killing 5, the EF4 in IL, the Kentucky tornado killing 19 which is the most a tornado has killed since TN 2020.
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Actually I believe it was December 10th-11th 2021. The death toll is the same as the Cookeville, TN EF4 tornado on March 3, 2020.
 
What a crazy night. Very happy Greensburg: the sequel didn't occur. At the same time, I wish there was a way for these tornadoes to get fairly rated without having to hit structures and hurt people.

Looks like today could be a big day, too...
 
Ebaad Jaffery said:
What's the ceiling and floor for today's event?
Click to expand...
Ceiling is broken line of discrete cells and having a tornado outbreak with a few long track tornadoes. Foor, QLCS cluster, with a few embedded tornadoes type event.

Honestly pretty surprised they pulled the trigger on a MDT risk. Reason for this, is due to the fact that there's two rounds of severe storms. First round is around 2-3 PM, where storm initation is first to take place, with the make show firing later that evening (6-8 PM) behind it. Question remains if the atmosphere will be able to recover enough for the main show to happen. Even then if it does, I feel like there's a better chance of a linear cluster-esque storm mode.

Nonetheless, kinematics are in place for a classic Oklahoma type tornado outbreak to take place. Question remains if the atmosphere will fully recover for the storms to take advantage of said kinematics.
 
rushdude said:
DFW's in a 10% TOR risk + the dreaded black marker.
Three weeks ago the metroplex got spared because of that morning 'Forrest Gump Vietnam downpour' as I called it.
But from what I remember local meteorologist saying, the storms will be coming in around 4PM or so.

Unsure of any failure modes and that slow moving supercell last night which hit Gordon, TX, came through a Slight Risk area with a 5% TOR for it.
Click to expand...
I'm in the DFW metroplex area as well closer to Texoma, in Collin County. Had some rotation come through yesterday night which prompted a tornado warning. This will be an interesting setup. So far the models I've seen, being the HRRR and the NAM, seem to not want convection as south as the metroplex. Any reasoning for this, or am I possibly wrong?
 
The really high SCP and STP for tommorow evening/night line up perfectly with the SPC 10% hatched tornado risk I think. If the method that broyles uses for tornado outbreaks with the jet streak thing we could be in for a long evening tomorrow. Curious to see further discussions on tommorow.

Screenshot_2025-05-19-06-52-35-66_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2025-05-19-06-52-19-20_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
The really high SCP and STP for tommorow evening/night line up perfectly with the SPC 10% hatched tornado risk I think. If the method that broyles uses for tornado outbreaks with the jet streak thing we could be in for a long evening tomorrow. Curious to see further discussions on tommorow.

View attachment 42500View attachment 42501
Click to expand...
Yeah, MEG has seem concerned about tomorrow for a couple of days now.
 
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