Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[Grand Poo Bah]

We're officially at 105 official tornado reports since Thursday, May 14th. If this stretch is counted as the same outbreak sequence (there was only one tornado report on Saturday), that would officially make 2025 the fourth year on record with 3 or more 100+ tornado outbreaks. The other years are 2004, 2011, and 2024. That would also make ten 100+ tornado outbreaks this decade, which ties it with the 2000s for the most 100+ outbreaks in a decade. However, this decade achieved the record in less than half the time. On average, outbreaks are getting larger, more intense, and more frequent.

 

[N0mz]

We're officially at 105 official tornado reports since Thursday, May 14th. If this stretch is counted as the same outbreak sequence (there was only one tornado report on Saturday), that would officially make 2025 the fourth year on record with 3 or more 100+ tornado outbreaks. The other years are 2004, 2011, and 2024. That would also make ten 100+ tornado outbreaks this decade, which ties it with the 2000s for the most 100+ outbreaks in a decade. However, this decade achieved the record in less than half the time. On average, outbreaks are getting larger, more intense, and more frequent.

I don't disagree with your conclusion, but the increase is mostly due just to a heightened awareness and the internet

 

[N0mz]

Also don't be surprised by a Tuesday mdt or even high. Super fast jet (translation) comes into the risk area. Broyles has been all over fast translating jets as an indicator for outbreaks.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I really have no idea how the storm missed most of the town. That thing was wide and headed straight into the heart of town.

I also wonder about others who were in the path of this tornado from Greensburg to Plevna.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Obv in a potent pattern. Today and tomorrow could be ugly the way things been going. At a loss for words witnessing greensburg storm 2025 version. The ef3 in St. Louis killing 5, the EF4 in IL, the Kentucky tornado killing 19 which is the most a tornado has killed since TN 2020.

Actually I believe it was December 10th-11th 2021. The death toll is the same as the Cookeville, TN EF4 tornado on March 3, 2020.

 

[N0mz]

I also wonder about others who were in the path of this tornado from Greensburg to Plevna.

It really hit absolutely nothing. Maybe a couple barns

 

[shrubber256]

Got woken up by some fire in the sky over north Alabama this morning.

 

[lurker]

What a crazy night. Very happy Greensburg: the sequel didn't occur. At the same time, I wish there was a way for these tornadoes to get fairly rated without having to hit structures and hurt people.

Looks like today could be a big day, too...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Parameter space is pretty good over central and north Alabama tommrow. We could have a tornado outbreak. (Simulated reflectivity isnt super impressive but will see lol)

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

And, as soon as I tune out, hell takes place.

Judging by some of the damage in Plevna, I think this was another example of a possible EF5 strength tornado barely missing the town and still causing damage like Hallam and Mullhall.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

What's the ceiling and floor for today's event?

 

[SmokeEater]

What's the ceiling and floor for today's event?

Obviously a tornado outbreak, or a little more grungy mess, with embedded tornadoes. I don't see how we don't get by with none today though. Convective evolution is the biggest question.

 

[US_Highway15]

What's the ceiling and floor for today's event?

Ceiling is broken line of discrete cells and having a tornado outbreak with a few long track tornadoes. Foor, QLCS cluster, with a few embedded tornadoes type event.

Honestly pretty surprised they pulled the trigger on a MDT risk. Reason for this, is due to the fact that there's two rounds of severe storms. First round is around 2-3 PM, where storm initation is first to take place, with the make show firing later that evening (6-8 PM) behind it. Question remains if the atmosphere will be able to recover enough for the main show to happen. Even then if it does, I feel like there's a better chance of a linear cluster-esque storm mode.

Nonetheless, kinematics are in place for a classic Oklahoma type tornado outbreak to take place. Question remains if the atmosphere will fully recover for the storms to take advantage of said kinematics.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

DFW's in a 10% TOR risk + the dreaded black marker.
Three weeks ago the metroplex got spared because of that morning 'Forrest Gump Vietnam downpour' as I called it.
But from what I remember local meteorologist saying, the storms will be coming in around 4PM or so.

Unsure of any failure modes and that slow moving supercell last night which hit Gordon, TX, came through a Slight Risk area with a 5% TOR for it.

I'm in the DFW metroplex area as well closer to Texoma, in Collin County. Had some rotation come through yesterday night which prompted a tornado warning. This will be an interesting setup. So far the models I've seen, being the HRRR and the NAM, seem to not want convection as south as the metroplex. Any reasoning for this, or am I possibly wrong?

 

[AJS]

I legitimately have no words to describe what happened last night. Without a doubt the most impressive supercell i’ve ever tracked since Mayfield.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The really high SCP and STP for tommorow evening/night line up perfectly with the SPC 10% hatched tornado risk I think. If the method that broyles uses for tornado outbreaks with the jet streak thing we could be in for a long evening tomorrow. Curious to see further discussions on tommorow.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Just woke up to my Wikipedia talk page blowing up about a tornado hitting near Greensburg. Is this true? Also, did that DFW tornado last night drop in the metro?

 

[AJS]

The really high SCP and STP for tommorow evening/night line up perfectly with the SPC 10% hatched tornado risk I think. If the method that broyles uses for tornado outbreaks with the jet streak thing we could be in for a long evening tomorrow. Curious to see further discussions on tommorow.

View attachment 42500View attachment 42501

Yeah, MEG has seem concerned about tomorrow for a couple of days now.

 

[AJS]

Flyover of Grinnell, KS. Damage unsurprisingly looks in the EF3-EF4 range. Reminds me of Delmont, SD.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Also, was the CC drop near Greensburg 3.5 miles wide? That’s absolutely insane.