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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

Maxis_s said:

Mister Nixon that screenshot is valid in 3 hours
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He’s right though, I’ve seen the HRRR go ballistic multiple times before events and show one of those upper echelon type returns. Then the actual event isn’t anything close. The HRRR is an excellent model and doesn’t overconvect, but it can feed hype machines easily. If the SPC bought those runs we’d be looking at a high risk. The environment in Kansas has a long way to go.
 
Today, cloud cover was a good thing for storm development, holding off initiation until later in the day when the dynamics are all in place. As seen with last years daytime events in the plains, we didn't really get activity going until the nighttime because initiation happened earlier than was forecast and the anvils overworked the environment for later in the evening. Not todays issue at all. The cloud cover served as a weak cap to hold off those CU fields from initiating convection too early. Combine that with slow destabilization and rapidly strengthening, perpendicular wind profiles, and you have near perfect timing for a classic tornado outbreak in the plains. Timing is always key, and that is what today was dependent on. I feel quite confident about today.
 
459 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL SHACKELFORD COUNTY...

At 459 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Albany, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
Albany around 505 PM CDT.
Ibex around 515 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Us-
180 Near The Shackelford-Stephens County Line.
 
Tanner said:
Today, cloud cover was a good thing for storm development, holding off initiation until later in the day when the dynamics are all in place. As seen with last years daytime events in the plains, we didn't really get activity going until the nighttime because initiation happened earlier than was forecast and the anvils overworked the environment for later in the evening. Not todays issue at all. The cloud cover served as a weak cap to hold off those CU fields from initiating convection too early. Combine that with slow destabilization and rapidly strengthening, perpendicular wind profiles, and you have near perfect timing for a classic tornado outbreak in the plains. Timing is always key, and that is what today was dependent on. I feel quite confident about today.
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Couldnt agree more. My main concern with this setup was if the storms would remin discrete for the LLJ.
 
ColdFront said:
He’s right though, I’ve seen the HRRR go ballistic multiple times before events and show one of those upper echelon type returns. Then the actual event isn’t anything close. The HRRR is an excellent model and doesn’t overconvect, but it can feed hype machines easily. If the SPC bought those runs we’d be looking at a high risk. The environment in Kansas has a long way to go.
Click to expand...
It's almost as if you shouldn't listen to one single model run and assume that's how it's going to happen. It's an ever-changing model run every hour.
 
Tanner said:
Today, cloud cover was a good thing for storm development, holding off initiation until later in the day when the dynamics are all in place. As seen with last years daytime events in the plains, we didn't really get activity going until the nighttime because initiation happened earlier than was forecast and the anvils overworked the environment for later in the evening. Not todays issue at all. The cloud cover served as a weak cap to hold off those CU fields from initiating convection too early. Combine that with slow destabilization and rapidly strengthening, perpendicular wind profiles, and you have near perfect timing for a classic tornado outbreak in the plains. Timing is always key, and that is what today was dependent on. I feel quite confident about today.
Click to expand...

Thanks. So you see clouds burning off in KS? Or them staying and not making difference ? @Tanner
 
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