Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[jiharris0220]

Looks like there's some disagreement within the SPC offices on how this event will unfold. The MCD and new day one outlook were written by different METs with different wording/messaging.

That’s odd, in the discussion it even mentions this.

 

[jiharris0220]

 

[WhirlingWx]

Pretty crazy video where you can see the debris swirling at the base, and roof damage(?) visibly occurring.

 

[Maxis_s]

Pretty crazy video where you can see the debris swirling at the base, and roof damage(?) visibly occurring.

Yeah that was definitely a strong tornado. Not gigawedge violent (unlike what some people may have you believe) but still strong.

 

[US_Highway15]

So Nadocast thinks the show will be NW of El Reno, instead of SW Kansas around Dodge City. FOX Weather METs (including Brandon Copic) are considering repositioning around Woodward OK with how stable the air is right now around Dodge City, and the clearing that is taking place around western OK.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

May 23, 2008 and May 24, 2011 are the two dates I can match with today’s potential.

May 24th 2011 was an outbreak of only 12 tornadoes, but 3 of them were Piedmont, Chickisha, and Goldsby. That's a hell of a ceiling.

 

[A Guy]

Yeah it's been a decade I feel like where Oklahoma has had a high risk/moderate risk verify that produced an El Reno/Moore type tornado. Which again is a good thing.

We've had plenty of big outbreaks producing strong tornadoes over the past few years though, they've just tended to be at further east in areas of higher population density and often lower construction standards, and at night.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[zath]

Finally starting to see lightning with the development in the eastern TX panhandle, near Gageby, TX. Shall we take bets on if it maintains or collapses?

 

[Schoeppeya]

Storm going up around Miami Texas has the best chance at being a problem of what’s initiating so far. Looks pretty impressive on goes already

 

[zath]

Shower (no lightning yet) near Meade, KS already has some weak rotation with it. Pretty telling of the environment, from a wind shear perspective.

 

[Kds86z]

What?

 

[slenker]

Shower (no lightning yet) near Meade, KS already has some weak rotation with it. Pretty telling of the environment, from a wind shear perspective.

That storm really blew up outta nowhere too. Always catches my attention when the storms go from not existing to existing and already rotating very quickly.

 

[US_Highway15]

Canadian TX storm just went severe warned. No TOR Possible tag on it.

 

[jiharris0220]

Very thin corridor of exceptional kinematics. Storms that initiate along the dryline in southwest Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas seem to have the best chances so far.

 

[AJS]

Very thin corridor of exceptional kinematics. Storms that initiate along the dryline in southwest Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas seem to have the best chances so far.
View attachment 42245

The Canadian, TX storm will be entering into that very primed environment eventually.

 

[US_Highway15]

My gut tells me that the best chances for a strong tornado (outside of what's happening right now in CO) is in W OK.

 

[Tennie]

The storm near Miami, Texas, now has a Severe Thunderstorm Warning on it.

 

[zath]

Seems like we are finally seeing the start of the event (whatever it turns out to be.) Towers going up in an arc from Burlington, CO to Dodge City, KS to Canadian, TX.