Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14

[Anti-Freeze]

Hmmm, do the NWS radars show tornado warnings in Canada issued by Canada?....

 

[JayF]

Hmmm, do the NWS radars show tornado warnings in Canada issued by Canada?....

I do not think the Canada radars are monitored by the NWS unless it covers some part of the U.S. I do know that RadarScope has a lot of Canada radars including the sites that are getting Tornado warnings right now.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WesL]

Looks like Nadocast woke up, snorted a bunch of cocaine, meth, and bath salts, and chose violence:

Cocaine NadoCast.. not as catchy as Cocaine Bear but same concept.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Anti-Freeze]

So confirmed, my NWS national radar shows the storms in Canada, but not any warnings issued by their equivalent to the NWS. At the moment there is a long, tiny sliver of a torwarn box up against the border, then nothing on the other side other than the actual storm.

 

[Anti-Freeze]

Haha, looks like a South Park talking Canadian tornado, split in two at the mouth....

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

00Z HRRR decided to go absolutely crazy for Wednesday evening and all day Thursday. I think this is the first time we've crossed 10 STP all year!

 

[Kds86z]

 

[jiharris0220]

It’s going to be another cold front set up, but the cold front this time around looks to be pretty diffuse, if we manage to get a semi discrete storm mode and perhaps even some prefrontals, long track sig tors and even VI tors would be likely.
Hell, even if we end up with a QLCS, a few sig tors would still be likely with the Synoptics and parameter space like this.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Currently a random 20 VTP in Nebraska

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Based on the amount of upper level divergence over the storms in South Dakota I think we're about to have a major wind event unfold there.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

My peak intensity method scored last night in SK wit that tornado that destroyed a barn of sorts. It said 120-140 for that area. Was skeptical given storm mode but seems things happened to be more discrete than expected last minute up there.

Today looks like utter slop. Weak tornadoes within QLCSes/clusters and transient supercells. Why a 10CIG1 still exists is beyond me. The SPC NEED to be more blunt and downgrade risks. It may harm public trust but at least they can say they realized the underperforming potential.

The 12z HRRR has a fairly packed out area of supercells in E IA/W IL with no major UH tracks. My peak intensity for tomorrow is 120-140 so far. Personally, given how this year has been, I'm not confident just yet. I'm still think we need to sort out storm mode with this one.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

It’s going to be another cold front set up, but the cold front this time around looks to be pretty diffuse, if we manage to get a semi discrete storm mode and perhaps even some prefrontals, long track sig tors and even VI tors would be likely.
Hell, even if we end up with a QLCS, a few sig tors would still be likely with the Synoptics and parameter space like this.
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One thing of note is the subtle 700 mb inversion on your sounding. I'm not convinced totally that we see many, many initiation attempts tomorrow. I feel like this inversion could play a part in limiting crapvection plenty tomorrow. We will see.