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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14

US_Highway15 said:
Tomorrow to me screams like a day where all the computer models should be thrown out the door, because we just don't know what the heck is going to happen. To me it's a 50/50, flip a coin type day/setup.
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I disagree, all of the models actually are in fantastic agreement on the set up and parameter space, what diverges however is the exact storm mode, which heavily depends on the gradient of the cold front itself and the magnitude of the forcing mechanism overriding the warm sector.

But seriously, it’s like someone just teleported a Dixie Alley set up 45 degrees north.
1781121071161.png
 
This sounding was taken at 5pm, in southern Wisconsin, this is something straight out of a high end Dixie alley set up. Again though very saturated and no inversion layer.
1781121877552.png
However, just a little further south, theres a decent amount of surface mixing and the vertical profile is a little drier, but the fact the hrrr at least at this point has a mostly discrete mode is note worthy, I doubt the other cams will follow suit but they could in later runs.
1781122069559.png
 
jiharris0220 said:
I disagree, all of the models actually are in fantastic agreement on the set up and parameter space, what diverges however is the exact storm mode, which heavily depends on the gradient of the cold front itself and the magnitude of the forcing mechanism overriding the warm sector.

But seriously, it’s like someone just teleported a Dixie Alley set up 45 degrees north.
View attachment 53199
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It's interesting, though, because Kerr downgraded probabilities and basically scaled the ENH back to where it was yesterday in their Day 3 afternoon outlook.
 
jiharris0220 said:
This sounding was taken at 5pm, in southern Wisconsin, this is something straight out of a high end Dixie alley set up. Again though very saturated and no inversion layer.
View attachment 53200
However, just a little further south, theres a decent amount of surface mixing and the vertical profile is a little drier, but the fact the hrrr at least at this point has a mostly discrete mode is note worthy, I doubt the other cams will follow suit but they could in later runs.
View attachment 53203
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I mean that first screenshot you have has SRH values the same as the 4/27/11. Not saying that'll happen because it won't, but just thought that was interesting. No analogs though which is interesting.
 
US_Highway15 said:
It's interesting, though, because Kerr downgraded probabilities and basically scaled the ENH back to where it was yesterday in their Day 3 afternoon outlook.
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Yes, I saw.
Nothing against Kerr, but I have been constantly perplexed with his forecast decisions each time he makes them.
Especially in this case, Im not sure how any meteorologist sees a 80+knot 500mb jet maximum and a 50-70+knot low level jet and decides, hmm this wind risk doesn’t need a moderate.
Downdraft cape is over a thousand as well btw.
Just not sure what’s going through his head with all due respect to him.
1781122252043.png1781122276942.png
 
Anti-Freeze said:
Hmmm, do the NWS radars show tornado warnings in Canada issued by Canada?....
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Late reply - they don't, but the Radarscope app does.

Grand Poo Bah said:
Yeah that has to be a major factor as well. But even taking the forecasting out of it, it has been a crazy quiet year for tornadoes.
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It might just be a coincidence, but at least in the last few decades there seems to be a general trend of very active periods being followed by quiet ones. 1998-1999, 2003-2004, 2008, 2010-early 2012, 2019-early 2020, and now apparently 2024-2025 were all followed by at least one very slow year for tornadoes.
 


SUMMARY...GREATEST TORNADO CHANCES INCLUDING STRONG TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
IOWA. A STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE PREVIOUS RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS.
THIS AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED AS EXPECTED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND 70S F DEWPOINTS. 0-1 SRH ON THE ORDER OF 150
M2/S2 ALONG WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
TORNADO RISK FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE RECOVERING
OUTFLOW AREA. AS LONG AS STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE, A FEW TORNADOES
APPEAR PROBABLE.
 
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