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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - June 23rd-27th, 2023

FFC's picking up on the notion of an MCS pattern for Sunday into Monday, even perhaps beyond.


Moving into Sunday, the forecast becomes potentially a bit more
complicated and uncertain. The forecast area will be situated within
a regime of northwest flow aloft in between the departing trough and
building ridge across Texas into the ArkLaTex region. This northwest
flow could usher an MCS into the region, though predictability
regarding the timing and position of any potential complex remains
low. Hi-res CAMs have been supportive of this possibility over the
last several cycles, though placement and timing remains in flux. At
this point, the forecast will indicate gradually increasing PoPs
from the northwest from Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon to
account for this possibility. If any MCS does push into the area,
some severe potential could manifest, particularly if it were to
arrive during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. The high
temperature forecast will also be dependent on convective coverage
with temperatures likely near and above 90 degrees for most if a
drier forecast verifies, or cooler if more widespread convection
affects the area.
 
Current look for today severe/tornado wise.

 

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SPC expands Slight Risk for much of MS into Alabama back into Arkansas. Watch for them to expand the Enhanced Risk further south and west as well. Potential is there for one or perhaps two potent MCS's.
 

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