Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - June 23rd-27th, 2023

[JBishopwx]

Severe Weather Threat for this weekend.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC Day 3 outlook seems more bearish on the tornado threat for Saturday than they've been. They went from mentioning "all hazards" at Days 5 and 4, to large hail specifically (with associated hatched area). The 00Z NAM, rather than providing more clarity as hoped, was quite confusing with a solution radically different than its previous one, and quite different from the GFS.

 

[TornadoFan]

I'm gonna be in SE Nebraska on Saturday. Should I be worried?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I'm gonna be in SE Nebraska on Saturday. Should I be worried?

Based on the forecast, I would definitely stay weather-aware in that area.

06Z GFS looks pretty potent for Saturday somewhere in Iowa. Synoptically there's a lot to like as a chaser, especially on this run where the shortwave trough appears to be more neutrally titled compared to previous runs where it had more of a positive tilt. Slightly south of due west 500mb flow, with the left exit region punching out into the warm sector across a 30 to 40 kt LLJ.

However, the devil's going to be in the details as it usually is.

 

[OHWX97]

I'm keeping a close eye on Sunday. It's still quite a difficult and uncertain forecast, but potential is there for significant severe weather for Illinois/Indiana and possibly into western Ohio. Andrew Pritchard has a excellent twitter thread discussing the complex setup.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

I'm most likely setting up in Des Moines, Iowa on Saturday morning. Will adjust from there.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The storm west of Denver, CO is severe warned with reported hail of 1.75inch in diameter. That shape has me concerned for a possible tornado.

 

[atrainguy]

The storm west of Denver, CO is severe warned with reported hail of 1.75inch in diameter. That shape has me concerned for a possible tornado.

Assuming the power doesn't cut out from the storm, this camera will be great for watching that storm which is currently passing over it. Nice elevated view of the landscape looking east towards Denver. EDIT: Currently zoomed in on a train, lol. Still worth keeping an eye on it.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tornado probabilities go up tomorrow in parts of N CO/ E WY/ W NE / SW SD. The SPC upgraded to an enhance risk in the region for the wind and hail threat.

 

[TH2002]

In addition to the ENH risk upgrade covering parts of Wyoming, Nebraska and South Dakota, another 5% tornado area is up in none other than the Texas Panhandle.

 

[atrainguy]

First warning of the day in the TX Panhandle.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Highlands Ranch, CO storm very suspicious and just went tornado warned.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Timmer is on the possible tornado but currently trapped in completely stopped traffic

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Cc drop this is down in a very densely populated area.

 

[KCweatherboy]

That spun up rather quick too, not good especially at this time of the day!

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

This part I’ve always wondered so Carriage Club is about two miles from the tornado, but they are not under a tornado warning so does that mean that they aren’t being warned to seek shelter in their safe place when a tornado is only two miles away?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Carriage Club is now hit by the tornado, but they are outside the tornado warning Polygon. Does that mean wireless emergency alerts etc are not being activated?