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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-23

Sneaky tornado risk today associated with a likely MCV this afternoon and evening in the Deep South. Sounding from near Rome, Georgia this evening. Decent 3CAPE and curved hodograph would be plenty for summer spin-ups.
1782143280979.png1782143589304.png
 
Clancy said:
Sneaky tornado risk today associated with a likely MCV this afternoon and evening in the Deep South. Sounding from near Rome, Georgia this evening. Decent 3CAPE and curved hodograph would be plenty for summer spin-ups.
View attachment 53844View attachment 53846
Click to expand...

INTERESTINGLY, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ABOVE
850 MB AMID PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE AMID
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODESTLY ENHANCED
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS NEAR THE CORE OF
THE MCV. AS SUCH, A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO COULD OCCUR. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TIMING
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
 
Kds86z said:
INTERESTINGLY, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ABOVE
850 MB AMID PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE AMID
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODESTLY ENHANCED
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS NEAR THE CORE OF
THE MCV. AS SUCH, A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO COULD OCCUR. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TIMING
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
Click to expand...

MCV , Hybrids and lake/sea intereactions are the 3 main events that causes these low risk boom event, yesterday was a MCV event and it seems today we are going for a second round.

here is a crazy example of a MCV event.
1782144673865.png
 
South AL Wx said:
The latest Day 1 Outlook increased tornado probs to 5% across parts of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee:

View attachment 53848
Click to expand...
Very wise decision on their part. Excess 3CAPE, surface vorticity, and plenty of low level curvature in a saturated profile spells sneaky tornado potential.
Im definitely not liking that cams are modeling widespread OWS convention out ahead of the decayed MCS.
 
Oh, alright. Not expecting much from these storms themselves, but that's quite an interesting presentation.
KBMX_loop.gif
 
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