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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-23

Sneaky tornado risk today associated with a likely MCV this afternoon and evening in the Deep South. Sounding from near Rome, Georgia this evening. Decent 3CAPE and curved hodograph would be plenty for summer spin-ups.
1782143280979.png1782143589304.png
 
Clancy said:
Sneaky tornado risk today associated with a likely MCV this afternoon and evening in the Deep South. Sounding from near Rome, Georgia this evening. Decent 3CAPE and curved hodograph would be plenty for summer spin-ups.
View attachment 53844View attachment 53846
Click to expand...

INTERESTINGLY, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ABOVE
850 MB AMID PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE AMID
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODESTLY ENHANCED
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS NEAR THE CORE OF
THE MCV. AS SUCH, A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO COULD OCCUR. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TIMING
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
 
Kds86z said:
INTERESTINGLY, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ABOVE
850 MB AMID PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE PROFILE AMID
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODESTLY ENHANCED
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS NEAR THE CORE OF
THE MCV. AS SUCH, A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO COULD OCCUR. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TIMING
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
Click to expand...

MCV , Hybrids and lake/sea intereactions are the 3 main events that causes these low risk boom event, yesterday was a MCV event and it seems today we are going for a second round.

here is a crazy example of a MCV event.
1782144673865.png
 
South AL Wx said:
The latest Day 1 Outlook increased tornado probs to 5% across parts of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee:

View attachment 53848
Click to expand...
Very wise decision on their part. Excess 3CAPE, surface vorticity, and plenty of low level curvature in a saturated profile spells sneaky tornado potential.
Im definitely not liking that cams are modeling widespread OWS convention out ahead of the decayed MCS.
 
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