Severe Weather Threat June 15-23

[Kds86z]

 

[joshoctober16]

Seeing forecasted sigtor approaching 10 is unusual for this time of year. I personally think we'll see at least one cell fire in the environment as it is indubitably very potent and pretty uncapped. (gfs cherrypick View attachment 44250

i can see issues with this.
3CAPE should be 20+
K index should be 31 to 65

and if you use this formula ([(LowRH + MidRH) / 2]) you would get = 54.5% for the RH it should be 60 to 92%

only then i feel it should be worthy of a PDS TOR risk

odd fact the Psbl Haz. has a clear flaw of not including the LowRH + MidRH while the normal TOR has it

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

im glad that the stuff is putting a damper on things for friday it seems like the northern mode im thinking its a wind bag hopefully is the likely possible scenario

 

[warneagle]

We've currently got severe thunderstorm warnings for both the DC metro area and New York City. I'm not sure what the record is for the number of people under a severe thunderstorm warning at one time but this has to be close to it.

Actually our warning is a PDS, guess it's time to go get things down off the balcony.

And there's a warning for Jacksonville too, so that's easily 10 million people under a SVR at once.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah we’re about to get walloped here

 

[warneagle]

Update: yeah we got walloped, but somehow escaped without any significant damage

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

glad to see your safe

 

[Ozonelayer]

Why is Phillidelphia under a PDS TOR?

 

[N0mz]

I have no idea that storm is not rotating at all

 

[Kds86z]

Why is Phillidelphia under a PDS TOR?

Wow that’s wild lol .then when we need one we don’t get it

 

[Ozonelayer]

I have no idea that storm is not rotating at all

As Evan Fryberger said: "What are they smoking??"

Genuinely confused, like what? Its hardly enough for a regular tornado warning, let alone a PDS.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

it is radar indicated hopefully kds86z is safe looks like a pocket of very strong winds

 

[Kds86z]

it is radar indicated hopefully kds86z is safe looks like a pocket of very strong winds

Not close to Philly but thanks

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh okay glad you are safe

 

[Kds86z]

oh okay glad you are safe

Thanks. Am in a severe thunderstorm storm watch though. 2 storms already today after a few yesterday smh.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

yeah but at least this area of high pressure will give us a chance to dry out hopefully for the rest of june

 

[Brice W]

This has been developing to a major issue the past few years, we had a TORE issued awhile back when nothing was on the ground. And now we have this. Let alone all the miscues or last minute warnings. I hope this can be an issue that is stern and discussed very seriously somehow.

 

[Kds86z]

yeah but at least this area of high pressure will give us a chance to dry out hopefully for the rest of june

Yeah 96 for days will us out alright up here lol

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

holy moly that isnt a good combo with high dew points

 

[Kds86z]

holy moly that isnt a good combo with high dew points

Next week for here