Severe Weather Threat June 15-23

[warneagle]

got enough of a downpour that they actually cancelled our severe thunderstorm watch early, at least for the DC area.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I noticed this phenomenon on August 9, 2021, a similar MCV setup in northern Illinois in which I saw what I consider my first "official" tornado, an EF1 near Kirkland. The storms were small (never really showed updraft helicity swaths on the HRRR runs the morning of) and the forecast hodographs screamed HP yet the tornadoes were quite visible (the tornado I caught was actually the most rain-wrapped of the bunch, not helped by my relatively great distance from it, about 2 1/2 miles). I made the mistake of not giving the setup enough credit even after seeing that tornado (as well as glimpsing the preceding brief EF0 near Esmond) and started for home, missing another storm that produced several more, and even more visible/photogenic/longer lived tornadoes in the same general area about 45 minutes later.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

hopefully these mcv setups can come to a close soon but interesting hopefully those were all weak despite them being long lived

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

hopefully just some brief short lived spin ups

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[N0mz]

CAMs are throwing water on the friday night setup... still really good params but the storm initiation is sloppy

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

hopefully things are on the wind down with the ridge building in we might be entering ring of fire setups now

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Sky_I565]

Just SW of Nashville

 

[Kds86z]

Hoping no other damage to homes or anything. Thankful most tornadoes were in farm land.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

yeah and oh that is good news thank goodness hopefully everybody is safe as well

 

[Kds86z]

 

[N0mz]

Unless that thing is riding a boundary, which it doesn't appear to be doing, I wouldn't be too worried about it. Nashville 00z sounding only had 95 1k srh

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

looks like a tail end charlie

 

[Sky_I565]

NROT at 1.56 and VROT at 44knts. Tornado Warning justified at the moment.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

gotcha

 

[N0mz]

pretty good breakdown of the setup friday. unusually potent params but unsure whether storms will fire into the environment.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

hopefully not it is conditional thankfully and how come you mention unusual