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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat July 18 - 21 2023

JayF

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Interesting Setup for today. This is the time period where we see fewer of these types of setups in the south. I am interested to see how this plays out. Stay Weather Aware y'all.

-Jay
 

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JayF

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JayF

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely for this general vicinity in Kentucky and Texas, but with Tornado Warnings already in Kentucky, They may need to change this to a Tornado Watch.
 

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JPWX

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Both the 17z and 18z HRRR runs show a nice MCS moving through Northeast MS.
 

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Mike S

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HUN is investigating an area near the Monrovia community for potential tornado damage from yesterday afternoon's storm.
 

Equus

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Very violent motion on that

Assumed this was a bit of a mesoscale accident - the RAP sounding looks fairly marginal - but quickly looking like the RAP isn't representative of the local environment there

rap_2023071916_000_35.75--77.41.pngScreenshot_20230719_121915.jpg

The thermo profile lines up fine with the surface obs (dewpoint of 80° just ahead of the storm!) but the simulated hodo and wind profile doesn't line up with what we're seeing on observations; a small but very significant area of low level backing there ahead of that cluster; if we look at the 700mb map...

Screenshot_20230719-122834-629.png

Yeah, there's our culprit, a rather sharp trough at 700-850mb that has enhanced the flow and backed surface winds. With super low LCLs in an insanely moist and unstable enviro, that's a lot of low and mid level support for a couple shallow but strong tornadoes in that little area
 

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Had a crazy lightning storm last night around 5 am, looking to see what's coming our way for later today.
 
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