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Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024

tornado examiner said:
So I’m guessing all that messy stuff will move out of the way allowing the dangerous organized stuff to form and move in?
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We don’t know… yet… sometimes we don’t know what exactly the weather is going to do until it actually happens, regardless of what parameter say. This is one of those times.

It’s basically a wait and see game now
 
tornado examiner said:
So I’m guessing all that messy stuff will move out of the way allowing the dangerous organized stuff to form and move in?
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Yes the quite strong LLJ and surface winds should be enough that moisture should rapidly advect south of the warm front. Obviously a lot of moving parts though, so we'll have to wait and see if that happens
 
CheeselandSkies said:
It was always a possibility that the southeast TX portion of the risk would underperform given weak low-level lapse rates, well captured by many of the CAMS not intensifying convection much in that area. Good thing for people attending the National Championship Game!
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Makes one wonder if Bama won last week if more people in southwest Alabama would be paying attention to the overnight risk already being up late to watch the game. With Bama not in the game, many might go to bed at regular time and let their guard down.
 
tornado examiner said:
No moderate….
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Looks like they are expecting thermodynamics to remain a limiting factor overall, which of course doesn't rule out a few storms finding sufficient instability to do something dangerous.

*Worth noting, the 00Z HRRR matches pretty well with observed trends showing fairly modest (sub-severe) convection across Central LA, then has it rapidly intensifying within the next 3-4 hours.
 
tornado examiner said:
No moderate….
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Probably a good thing for those in the path of this storm system. Now we just need to get the cold front to move through and sweep all the warm air out of the way with minimal fuss and we can have people sleeping soundly tonight (knock on wood!).
 
New watch expected in the next few hours.
 
Also, important note! Regardless of your severe risk, folks across the South ought to prepare for power outages due to the strong gradient winds. Keep those phones charged.
 
Huge amounts of helicity available tonight. WF is also moving east-northeastward at a steady pace.
1704765122652.png
 
Here in Austin, just behind the system...

Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 37. Windy, with a west northwest wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 54. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph
 
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