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Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather
warneagle
Member
Not a lot of coastal convection to get in the way of that CAPE being transported northeastward either (and already pretty good low-level winds to do it). I guess we’ll see if anything pops up but that’s a pretty clean WS without much CINH. Already some ESTP values of 5-6 and VTPs of 12-13 north of Houston per mesoanalysis.
I think they've actually raced ahead of the warm front. Likely stay elevated
wolfywise
Member
KevinH
Member
I see 400, not 4000??
Tanner
Member
Nope, mesoanalysis has cape approaching or exceeding 4000
Wowwwwww
You can double check the values by looking at the ascension in rings (kind of like counting rings on a tree), either counting up from the lowest or down from the highest. They're also color-coded but it's a terrible color table they chose. Latest meso analysis ticked it up to 5,000 j/kg now.
Hrrr is playing catch-up It seems.
It's not even initializing near the current instability.
It's not even initializing near the current instability.
warneagle
Member
Are there gonna be any special balloon launches today?
RollTide18
Member
There’s a cold rain where I’m a right now while under a slight risk with an ENH/hatched 10% tornado risk a county south of me.
Weather doing weather things.
Weather doing weather things.
KevinH
Member
Oh ok…
I was looking at the graphic in your previous comment, but I don’t think it was CAPE now that I look at it again lol
KevinH
Member
Updated AFD from MOB:
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
An anomalously strong storm system will bring a potentially significant multi-hazard event to the area in the near term. These hazards include very strong winds, potentially moderate coastal
flooding, high marine impacts and the potential for a significant severe thunderstorm event including damaging winds and potentially a couple significant (EF-2+) tornadoes. And if that wasn`t enough, we are also expecting very high surf (10+ feet) and dangerous rip currents along area beaches.
Synoptic Overview...Current water vapor imagery reveals a large upper low over the Desert Southwest this morning. This upper low will continue to deepen into a vigorous upper level low later today and into tonight as a 130+ jet streak rounds the base of the trough. As a result, this system will take on a more neutral tilt while swinging across the Central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley tonight. To put this upper low into perspective, both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance show 500 mb heights at 4 standard deviations below the climatological mean. Down at the surface, a strengthening low pressure lifts northeastward across the Mississippi Valley causing a warm front to lift into the area late this evening with an associated cold front pushing through Tuesday morning. Given the strength of this system, there will be a very tight pressure gradient with a powerful 70 to 80 knot (possibly higher) 850 mb jet spreading over the area tonight. All that to say, that there will be very strong dynamics and shear present. In terms of when activity will begin... Showers and storms will begin to move inland this afternoon as the synoptic warm front lifts north over the Gulf. As we head into the evening and overnight hours, expect this convection to persist and storms could become severe as the warm front lifts inland and convection becomes surface based. Severe storms will also be possible as the QLCS pushes through Tuesday morning. Rain may become intermittent for a brief period after the warm front lifts and before the final line of storms pushes through early Tuesday morning. Storms are expected to exit to the east by noon on Tuesday with dry conditions returning for Tuesday afternoon.
Severe Threat...The makings of a significant severe thunderstorm threat remain possible tonight and into Tuesday morning. An intense low level jet will usher plenty of warm air and rich Gulf moisture into the area with temperatures/dew points rising nearly 20 degrees over the next 18 hours. These factors will likely have no issue working instability inland across our area as the marine boundary lifts northward. All the high resolution guidance has around 1000 J/KG of MLCape making its way to the highway 84 corridor with some guidance hinting at near 2000 J/KG near the I-10 corridor. On top of the instability the shear will be absolutely insane with 0-1 KM SRH values in the warm sector hovering around the 500 to 600 m2/s2 and with no surprise, forecast soundings continue to indicate very significant low level curvature. It should also be noted however, that these shear environments can sometimes be too much which ends up shearing the storms out. However, intense jet dynamics in the right entrance region of the upper jet could overcome this. Expect
two rounds of severe weather to be possible with both capable of significant severe. The first round is a little more conditional as instability and synoptic ascent will be more limited compared to round two. However, this round will be along the lifting marine boundary around midnight. This will likely involve embedded supercells lifting with the boundary leading to the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. Given the shear environment and the boundary, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Then the real show arrives shortly after and persists through the overnight in the form of a rather strong QLCS. This heavily forced squall line will only intensify as the upper jet overspreads and the LLJ increases. The combination of strong kinematics and low level instability with 0-
3km cape values likely approaching 100k/kg or more will support strong vertical stretching in a incredibly rich vorticity environment. QLCS tornadoes will likely be common with this line
including the potential for a few strong QLCS tornadoes (EF-2+).
Along with the tornadoes, strong damaging winds will also be likely with wind gusts in excess of 70 mph given 850 and 925 mb winds will already be high. This has the potential to be a rather intense severe event occurring overnight. Be sure to continue to stay updated and have multiple ways to receive warnings that are battery operated and charged as power may go out well before severe thunderstorms arrive.
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
An anomalously strong storm system will bring a potentially significant multi-hazard event to the area in the near term. These hazards include very strong winds, potentially moderate coastal
flooding, high marine impacts and the potential for a significant severe thunderstorm event including damaging winds and potentially a couple significant (EF-2+) tornadoes. And if that wasn`t enough, we are also expecting very high surf (10+ feet) and dangerous rip currents along area beaches.
Synoptic Overview...Current water vapor imagery reveals a large upper low over the Desert Southwest this morning. This upper low will continue to deepen into a vigorous upper level low later today and into tonight as a 130+ jet streak rounds the base of the trough. As a result, this system will take on a more neutral tilt while swinging across the Central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley tonight. To put this upper low into perspective, both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance show 500 mb heights at 4 standard deviations below the climatological mean. Down at the surface, a strengthening low pressure lifts northeastward across the Mississippi Valley causing a warm front to lift into the area late this evening with an associated cold front pushing through Tuesday morning. Given the strength of this system, there will be a very tight pressure gradient with a powerful 70 to 80 knot (possibly higher) 850 mb jet spreading over the area tonight. All that to say, that there will be very strong dynamics and shear present. In terms of when activity will begin... Showers and storms will begin to move inland this afternoon as the synoptic warm front lifts north over the Gulf. As we head into the evening and overnight hours, expect this convection to persist and storms could become severe as the warm front lifts inland and convection becomes surface based. Severe storms will also be possible as the QLCS pushes through Tuesday morning. Rain may become intermittent for a brief period after the warm front lifts and before the final line of storms pushes through early Tuesday morning. Storms are expected to exit to the east by noon on Tuesday with dry conditions returning for Tuesday afternoon.
Severe Threat...The makings of a significant severe thunderstorm threat remain possible tonight and into Tuesday morning. An intense low level jet will usher plenty of warm air and rich Gulf moisture into the area with temperatures/dew points rising nearly 20 degrees over the next 18 hours. These factors will likely have no issue working instability inland across our area as the marine boundary lifts northward. All the high resolution guidance has around 1000 J/KG of MLCape making its way to the highway 84 corridor with some guidance hinting at near 2000 J/KG near the I-10 corridor. On top of the instability the shear will be absolutely insane with 0-1 KM SRH values in the warm sector hovering around the 500 to 600 m2/s2 and with no surprise, forecast soundings continue to indicate very significant low level curvature. It should also be noted however, that these shear environments can sometimes be too much which ends up shearing the storms out. However, intense jet dynamics in the right entrance region of the upper jet could overcome this. Expect
two rounds of severe weather to be possible with both capable of significant severe. The first round is a little more conditional as instability and synoptic ascent will be more limited compared to round two. However, this round will be along the lifting marine boundary around midnight. This will likely involve embedded supercells lifting with the boundary leading to the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. Given the shear environment and the boundary, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Then the real show arrives shortly after and persists through the overnight in the form of a rather strong QLCS. This heavily forced squall line will only intensify as the upper jet overspreads and the LLJ increases. The combination of strong kinematics and low level instability with 0-
3km cape values likely approaching 100k/kg or more will support strong vertical stretching in a incredibly rich vorticity environment. QLCS tornadoes will likely be common with this line
including the potential for a few strong QLCS tornadoes (EF-2+).
Along with the tornadoes, strong damaging winds will also be likely with wind gusts in excess of 70 mph given 850 and 925 mb winds will already be high. This has the potential to be a rather intense severe event occurring overnight. Be sure to continue to stay updated and have multiple ways to receive warnings that are battery operated and charged as power may go out well before severe thunderstorms arrive.
Last edited:
Intense cell bout to move inland
KevinH
Member
Tornado Watch #1
60/40 TOR probs
Tornado Watch Number 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Louisiana
Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
900 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen this afternoon
and evening while posing a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and
large hail. A strong tornado appears possible given a rather
favorable environment.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles west northwest of Houston TX
to 15 miles east southeast of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
60/40 TOR probs
Tornado Watch Number 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Louisiana
Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
900 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen this afternoon
and evening while posing a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and
large hail. A strong tornado appears possible given a rather
favorable environment.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles west northwest of Houston TX
to 15 miles east southeast of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
Last edited:
OHWX97
Member
The first watch of the year.
KevinH
Member
Yep.. would not be surprised if the next one is PDS.
tornado examiner
Member
Highly unlikely…