Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024

[UK_EF4]

Regardless of discrete OWS development, my biggest concern is that we get multiple embedded supercells that are capable of producing intense tornadoes - take the Easter Outbreak: multiple intense and even a violent tornado were spawned by the line.

Given the strength of the wind fields any robust mesocyclone would be able to do dangerous things.

 

[keithGA]

Regardless of discrete OWS development, my biggest concern is that we get multiple embedded supercells that are capable of producing intense tornadoes - take the Easter Outbreak: multiple intense and even a violent tornado were spawned by the line.

Given the strength of the wind fields any robust mesocyclone would be able to do dangerous things.

Yeah, given those wind fields, even a bird fart is likely to start rotating.

 

[Clancy]

Regardless of discrete OWS development, my biggest concern is that we get multiple embedded supercells that are capable of producing intense tornadoes - take the Easter Outbreak: multiple intense and even a violent tornado were spawned by the line.

Given the strength of the wind fields any robust mesocyclone would be able to do dangerous things.

Reminds me of discussions in which the conclusion was that referring to QLCS tornadoes as inherently "weak" is just not a good (or scientifically sound) call.

 

[Clancy]

The supercells in the 16-17Z runs of the HRRR are so well-defined you can see the hook echoes on them.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The supercells in the 16-17Z runs of the HRRR are so well-defined you can see the hook echoes on them.
View attachment 23013

I smell a moderate coming....

 

[KevinH]

Regardless of discrete OWS development, my biggest concern is that we get multiple embedded supercells that are capable of producing intense tornadoes - take the Easter Outbreak: multiple intense and even a violent tornado were spawned by the line.

Given the strength of the wind fields any robust mesocyclone would be able to do dangerous things.

Strong EMBEDDED TORs has been mentioned my SPC and not some thing I have seen before.

If intense tornadoes are possible embedded in the line, makes me wonder about the discrete cells that can form ahead of the line

 

[KevinH]

Reminds me of discussions in which the conclusion was that referring to QLCS tornadoes as inherently "weak" is just not a good (or scientifically sound) call.

And see, I have always thought of embedded tornadoes as EF1 or less.

Let me find out an embedded tornado is EF3+.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The storm heading near lake Charles looks like a doozy. Hrrr is showing a intense one making landfall around here.

 

[KevinH]

Speaking of embedded tornadoes, what is the strongest embedded tornado you know of?

 

[Clancy]

I smell a moderate coming....

An ENH is definitely a safe call, but I can definitely see the legitimacy of a MDT for areas on either side of Mobile, especially given the nocturnal threat (and probable geospatial coverage due to the combo of QLCS tors + possible supercells).

 

[KAC11]

Hi all! Long time lurker, seldom poster since this stuff normally doesn't happen in my next of the woods (Semmes, Alabama, NW of Mobile). Will be here for the ride tonight to offer observations if necessary.

 

[Clancy]

And see, I have always thought of embedded tornadoes as EF1 or less.

Let me find out an embedded tornado is EF3+.

I know there were EF3s during the 4/27 pre-event QLCS, though I'm sure there's plenty of other examples. @JPWX would be a good bet at finding you some specific data.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Pretty good observation here. Instability is being well overdone in Texas right now.

 

[KevinH]

SMDH

 

[OHWX97]

Tornado watch likely within the next few hours.

Mesoscale Discussion 0017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 081854Z - 082100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are continuing to slowly intensify, with the
issuance of a tornado watch likely in the next 1-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to intensify across
parts of east TX and western LA, mainly along and north of a surface
warm front that extends from north of HOU to east of ACT. To the
south of the front, surface dewpoints have risen into the mid/upper
60s, with MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. VAD profiles near the
warm front show very strong low-level vertical shear with 0-3km SRH
values of 500 and 900 m2/s2 at HGX and LCH.

Thus far, thunderstorms have been elevated with primarily a large
hail threat. Recent CAM solutions suggest that continued daytime
heating will begin to aid convective development along the immediate
warm front to the west of HOU in the next couple of hours, which
would potentially have a greater risk of surface-based supercells
and an attendant threat of tornadoes - along with large hail and
damaging winds. This area is being closely monitored for convective
development and potential tornado watch issuance.

..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024

 

[Clancy]

Pretty good observation here. Instability is being well overdone in Texas right now.

4000+ CAPE in January? Combine that with these wind fields and... yeesh.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

SMDH

View attachment 23015

Tornado watch coming within the next 1-3 hours, per the NWS discussion

 

[wolfywise]

That supercell getting ready to make landfall is probably latched onto the WF

 

[UncleJuJu98]

4000+ CAPE in January? Combine that with these wind fields and... yeesh.
View attachment 23016

Let's pray the panhandle and Alabama coast isn't anywhere near higher than what it is forecasted

 

[KevinH]

MD 17

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 17

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

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