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Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024

UncleJuJu98 said:
Also don't forget the cold bias lol, it's been very stubborn lately on being about 5 degrees cooler or so than the rest of models. More areas and more robust moisture. Feels like the Nam has been off it's rocker for the end of December and start of January lol
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Ah, yeah I forgot about the cold bias. Will be intrigued in seeing how it stacks up to the CAMs.
 
I wouldn’t expect much of a severe threat into northern Georgia with this system. CAD’s are rarely eroded efficiently and always slower than forecast. Definitely greater prospects across TAE/JAX/CHS portions of southern Georgia…maybe extending farther north depending on moisture recovery. I still expect a more forced line, with embedded supercell structures, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few renegade cells ahead of the line or some breaks in the line. Which will clearly enhance tornado potential. SPC seems to outline it well. Certainly has the potential for a significant wind event with a number of embedded tornadoes across the warm sector.
 
tornado examiner said:
Kinda though we’d see a day 3 enhanced…
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I think there are still questions about how far inland the unstable warm sector will get. 12Z GFS still only has a fairly confined area of 3KM EHI >2 for most of the event. Also, the hodographs are fairly straight in the low levels until overnight when the surface low really gets to deepening, which is when we get this:

gfs_2024010612_066_29.75--90.25.png

...but this is only over a small area of southeastern Louisiana, after which it moves east mostly offshore, only nosing into immediate coastal areas of MS/AL and the Florida Panhandle through midmorning Tuesday.
 
I believe southern counties of North MS gets included in at least a Marginal Risk for Monday/Tuesday
 
tornado examiner said:
Is there a chance this event overperforms like January 12th did last year?
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Interesting you bring that up because Monroe County, MS saw a tornado early that morning near Prairie that unfortunately went unwarned. When they did issue the warning, the tornado had already dissipated. That started the 2023 Monroe County tornado extravaganza primarily centered around my house.
 
From Memphis AFD:
Ensemble solutions have come into better agreement that the center
of the surface low will track through southeast Missouri overnight
Monday into Tuesday morning. This track's slight jog to the north
over the last few model runs bears watching regarding the severe
weather threat on the southern extent of the CWA. While ensemble
probabilities of SBCAPE > 500 J/kg are essentially negligible in
northeast Mississippi, the northern extent of the warm sector
still has a bit of uncertainty. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible areawide overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, but
portions of north Mississippi may end up being clipped by a few
strong storms if the northward trend in the parent low's track
continues.
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JPWX said:
Interesting you bring that up because Monroe County, MS saw a tornado early that morning near Prairie that unfortunately went unwarned. When they did issue the warning, the tornado had already dissipated. That started the 2023 Monroe County tornado extravaganza primarily centered around my house.
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Yes... uhmmm... I think we had enough severe weather in Monroe County last year. Thank you 2024.

Mom says there are parts of Amery and Smithville that still have trees down that they have not gotten to, or been able to process.
 
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