My friend who works in EM for Florida received this in an email from the local NWS this morning:
"The system early next week (Monday night/Tuesday) is of greatest concern. Agreement among numerous models remains unusually strong. Therefore, confidence in the forecast is higher than normal, even at 4 days out"
The latest AFD from NWS TAE:
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDTAE&e=202401052100
Went ahead and pasted the text for the timeframe.
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 354 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2024
A deep, energetic trough digging down from the Rockies triggers
surface cyclogenesis over the South-Central Plains on Monday. This
system interacts with a strong subtropical jet to force a large
convective mass over the SW Gulf that pushes northward via an
associated lifting warm front Monday afternoon-evening. As such,
rain chances spread from south to north during that time. This
period will represent the 1st of two rounds of severe weather,
particularly Monday night into Tuesday morning. The increasingly
sheared environment will be favorable for rotating supercells
capable of tornadoes, especially along the warm front where winds
become backed and 60s dewpoint foster some instability. The SPC
maintains a 15% probability in the Day 4 Outlook mainly for the FL
Panhandle & SE AL - valid 12Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday. Locations
elsewhere are more likely to experience rain showers with some
embedded thunder from being on the cooler side of the warm front.
Heading into early Tuesday, the aforementioned trough swings into
the Lower MS Valley and takes on a negative tilt. The low-level
mass response is an intensifying southerly jet with the strong,
unidirectional vertical wind profile becoming parallel to the
attendant surface low's cold front. As a result, a squall line is
poised to develop to our west, then plow through the region
through Tuesday afternoon. Given the very strong shear, intense
LLJ, weak to moderate instability, and robust forcing, this 2nd
round for severe weather has the potential to be significant. All
hazards are possible - damaging winds, several tornadoes (some may
be strong), and hail. The SPC has a 15% for nearly the entire
forecast area in the Day 5 Outlook - valid 12Z Tuesday to 12Z
Wednesday. A myriad of other hazards of concern are: damaging non-
thunderstorm winds/gusts, dangerous beach & marine conditions,
isolated flash flooding, and minor coastal flooding. As confidence
increases, it is likely that we see upgrades in the SPC risk in
future outlooks. The severe threat looks to end by Tuesday
evening, but gusty winds are likely to linger for several hrs in
the cold front's wake.
