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Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024

Not sure why I didn't think about it sooner, but I checked SREF data and it paints some pretty aggressive SCP over a large swath of the Deep South. Not sure if it has heavy bias towards wind shear, since it doesn't line up with the CAMs, but figured it was worth pointing out.
SREF_prob_supercomp_6__f060.gifSREF_prob_supercomp_6__f066.gifSREF_SCCP_MEDIAN_MXMN__f063.gif
 
KevinH said:
Because….?
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Today, a lot of model guidance with dewpoint and simulated reflectivity forecast grew confidence that the warm front lifts north of these areas and allows for substantial instability to push into the area.
 
Austin Dawg said:
Yes... uhmmm... I think we had enough severe weather in Monroe County last year. Thank you 2024.

Mom says there are parts of Amery and Smithville that still have trees down that they have not gotten to, or been able to process.
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Yep. They still haven't done anything with the Piggly Wiggly or Dollar General buildings in Amory.
 
Does anyone see WPC upgrading parts of the Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall to Moderate?
 
Yea it looks like its all going to be from midnight til early morning hours. I definitely think there's potential for a strong tornado somewhere between Baton Rouge LA and Hattiesburg MS.

I've been pondering about what a trip might look like if this is chase-able or not. I would need a few SPC upgrades to increase my confidence.
 
JBishopwx said:
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SPCTOR2.jpg

Monday afternoon into Monday night, much will probably hinge on the
timing of the more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone,
which might be needed to allow for a destabilizing Gulf boundary
layer to advect inland across the northern Gulf coast. However,
guidance continues to generally indicate that this may occur across
at least portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late
Monday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, it appears likely to
coincide with intensifying wind fields and shear, including 50-70+
kt in the 850 mb layer, which could contribute to an environment
conducive to organizing convection with a risk for damaging wind
gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes.
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TBH I'd be a bit surprised if we don't see at least one upgrade to a D1 ENH between Monday and the 9th. Per the latest GFS run, things could get quite nasty in the NoLA area around midnight early Tuesday - which I think they really don't need considering they've already been enough of a tornado magnet over the past couple years...
 
Come on Kerr, you could issue a first Day 2 enhanced risk for last year’s January 24th event, but you couldn’t do it with the first day 2 for this event? :rolleyes:
 
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Taylor Campbell said:
Come on Kerr, you could issue a first Day 2 enhanced risk for the last year Jan 24th event, but you couldn’t do it with the first day 2 for this event? :rolleyes:
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CSU-MLP guidance comparison between the two threats.

12z Day 3 Hazards for January 24th, 2023

739D0116-ED60-48E4-B739-30A2A9F1EDF8.png

12z Day 3 Hazards for January 9th, 2024

B4FAC80A-E3F8-4BDA-8563-017BAB8A87CE.png
 
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