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Severe Weather Threat January 8-10, 2026

CheeselandSkies said:
"Severe showers" is a new one...

WUUS51 KBUF 092109
SVRBUF
NYC003-009-092215-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0003.260109T2109Z-260109T2215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
409 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Eastern Cattaraugus County in western New York...
Allegany County in western New York...

* Until 515 PM EST.

* At 408 PM EST, severe showers were located along a line extending
from 8 miles east of Arcade to near Salamanca to 6 miles northeast
of Scandia, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Olean, Salamanca, Wellsville, Allegany State Park, Alfred,
Allegany, Franklinville, Belfast, Cuba, and Rushford.

This includes Interstate 86 between exits 18 and 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7902 4212 7884 4252 7837 4252 7786
4247 7784 4247 7772 4246 7773 4200 7775
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 264DEG 37KT 4255 7827 4213 7875 4199 7897

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Mitchell
Click to expand...
Mom! I'm going to take a Severe Shower now! LOL!
 


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
WATCH ISSUANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON APPEARS
UNLIKELY, BUT A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON FROM
LA INTO SOUTHERN MS, WITHIN A SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG REGION-WIDE, BUT
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY REMAINED DISORGANIZED THUS FAR, LIKELY DUE TO
GENERALLY WEAK ASCENT AND THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE AROUND 700 MB
NOTED IN 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIX AND LCH.

WITH TIME, ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT INCREASING STORM ORGANIZATION FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR (WHICH HAS GENERALLY WEAKENED
THIS AFTERNOON) WILL ALSO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, THOUGH ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR A GRADUALLY INCREASING THREAT OF MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY SOME TORNADO AND WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, AND
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED HAIL. WATCH ISSUANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH TIME INTO THIS EVENING, DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE.

..DEAN/SMITH.. 01/09/2026

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
We’re off maybe ..

* UNTIL 515 PM CST.

* AT 433 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 23 MILES SOUTH OF
NATCHITOCHES, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NATCHITOCHES, NATCHEZ, BELLWOOD, CYPRESS, MELROSE, CLOUTIERVILLE,
GORUM, FLORA, CHOPIN, BERMUDA AND KISATCHIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEEK
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE.



LAT...LON 3145 9324 3172 9307 3152 9274 3136 9300
3136 9324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 222DEG 21KT 3140 9314

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

 
This is a slightly unnecessary rant but i really need to get it out of the way. I just discussed with someone abut the potential of a significant tornado being possible tonight. I disagreed but still think it'll be better then these confluence band attempts. They said yes but it's nonzero.

Brings me to my main point which is that using very nitpicky and technical assumptions just to make your logic feel somewhat valid, it really isn't how forecasting works. You could argue a nonzero significant tornado is always possible with any event that has strong shear with it.

While this QLCS may have stronger instability then most do, it isn't the instability in most cases but the line orientation. We've seen QLCS events with 8 tornado warnings in nearly no CAPE. anything 1.5k and above, it begins to really strengthen the QLCS and etc. I just wish people would stop forecasting the ceiling and forecast what's properly expected instead of trying to justify very baseless logic on any threat. And we've seen that today with people like Reed calling for a strong tornado possible today. Heck, people last night were saying Arkansas may have a significant tornado threat. There's a lack of people who call it like it is and just don't hype. It's hard to find a balanced line in forecasting and you're free to have your opinion but it does more harm than good. Today looked alright two days ago but the failure modes became quickly evident.

A conditional low end tornado is still possible with any sustained mini supercell ahead of a strong warm nose. A lot of storms are struggling however. When the LLJ rides in LATE tonight, that's probably our main main tornado threat. Tornado Watch might not be that far away however soon.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
This is a slightly unnecessary rant but i really need to get it out of the way. I just discussed with someone abut the potential of a significant tornado being possible tonight. I disagreed but still think it'll be better then these confluence band attempts. They said yes but it's nonzero.

Brings me to my main point which is that using very nitpicky and technical assumptions just to make your logic feel somewhat valid, it really isn't how forecasting works. You could argue a nonzero significant tornado is always possible with any event that has strong shear with it.

While this QLCS may have stronger instability then most do, it isn't the instability in most cases but the line orientation. We've seen QLCS events with 8 tornado warnings in nearly no CAPE. anything 1.5k and above, it begins to really strengthen the QLCS and etc. I just wish people would stop forecasting the ceiling and forecast what's properly expected instead of trying to justify very baseless logic on any threat. And we've seen that today with people like Reed calling for a strong tornado possible today. Heck, people last night were saying Arkansas may have a significant tornado threat. There's a lack of people who call it like it is and just don't hype. It's hard to find a balanced line in forecasting and you're free to have your opinion but it does more harm than good. Today looked alright two days ago but the failure modes became quickly evident.

A conditional low end tornado is still possible with any sustained mini supercell ahead of a strong warm nose. A lot of storms are struggling however. When the LLJ rides in LATE tonight, that's probably our main main tornado threat. Tornado Watch might not be that far away however soon.
Click to expand...
Well I do agree LATE tonight is main show as does Trey, SPc etc
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
This is a slightly unnecessary rant but i really need to get it out of the way. I just discussed with someone abut the potential of a significant tornado being possible tonight. I disagreed but still think it'll be better then these confluence band attempts. They said yes but it's nonzero.

Brings me to my main point which is that using very nitpicky and technical assumptions just to make your logic feel somewhat valid, it really isn't how forecasting works. You could argue a nonzero significant tornado is always possible with any event that has strong shear with it.

While this QLCS may have stronger instability then most do, it isn't the instability in most cases but the line orientation. We've seen QLCS events with 8 tornado warnings in nearly no CAPE. anything 1.5k and above, it begins to really strengthen the QLCS and etc. I just wish people would stop forecasting the ceiling and forecast what's properly expected instead of trying to justify very baseless logic on any threat. And we've seen that today with people like Reed calling for a strong tornado possible today. Heck, people last night were saying Arkansas may have a significant tornado threat. There's a lack of people who call it like it is and just don't hype. It's hard to find a balanced line in forecasting and you're free to have your opinion but it does more harm than good. Today looked alright two days ago but the failure modes became quickly evident.

A conditional low end tornado is still possible with any sustained mini supercell ahead of a strong warm nose. A lot of storms are struggling however. When the LLJ rides in LATE tonight, that's probably our main main tornado threat. Tornado Watch might not be that far away however soon.
Click to expand...
 
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