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Severe Weather Threat January 8-10, 2026
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Kds86z
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Kds86z
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Last edited:
Kds86z
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WeathermanLeprechaun
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This little QLCS event was already noted by several here yesterday. Storms managed to become surface based. Given the shear, I'm not surprised a significant tornado took place, but a method I'm experimenting with suggested lower end tornadoes today which did verify. Without making any tweaks due to failure modes, the value was 100 which is EF2+. It was 60 when accounted for failure modes, i suppose it can be considered a verification of the method maybe
Kds86z
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Kds86z
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Kds86z
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- Thread starter
- #229
CheeselandSkies
Member
Interestingly, the latest HRRR has the heavy band of rain pushing through southern Wisconsin around 0Z/6 PM CST, with us getting into the warm sector and well into the 50s after that, several hours after dark. I think with a little different timing this could have been a pretty far north and significant wintertime outbreak. Perhaps not unlike what happened almost to the day in 2008.
Kds86z
Member
Some on X are saying this would be tornado outbreak if in March…
Kds86z
Member
The low pressure system is moving quite a bit faster than the HRRR projected even just 6 hours ago. Reflectivity is the exact same though.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
the machine learning is hinting at a 10 percent risk for a tornado(es) or two with its probability forecast for day 2
Kds86z
Member
Latest day 1
ARKANSAS BUT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT HAS OUTRUN
THE BETTER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. HI-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
RRFS SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS, AND PERHAPS A
SUPERCELL OR TWO, WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THAT COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HEATING BY THE AFTERNOON,
BUT OVERALL THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR MEAGER, THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN STRONG. THIS LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MAINTENANCE OF
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP AND AS SUCH, A MARGINAL WAS
MAINTAINED TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THREAT.
ANOTHER LOCATION OF INTEREST FOR THE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOME BETTER OVERLAP OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BENEATH THE LLJ MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
ARKANSAS BUT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT HAS OUTRUN
THE BETTER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. HI-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
RRFS SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS, AND PERHAPS A
SUPERCELL OR TWO, WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THAT COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HEATING BY THE AFTERNOON,
BUT OVERALL THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR MEAGER, THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN STRONG. THIS LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MAINTENANCE OF
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP AND AS SUCH, A MARGINAL WAS
MAINTAINED TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THREAT.
ANOTHER LOCATION OF INTEREST FOR THE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOME BETTER OVERLAP OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BENEATH THE LLJ MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
Kds86z
Member
OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS -- POSING A RISK OFthe machine learning is hinting at a 10 percent risk for a tornado(es) or two with its probability forecast for day 2
DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET/MASS RESPONSE, A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF LA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MS.
These lapse rates are pretty terrible as of now.
SB CAPE and ML CAPE are non existent, but MU CAPE is high because of changes in temperature with height?
At least Helicity is absolutely bonkers, shear is high, and hodographs are potent looking
So basically Kinematics are peak, but thermodynamics are terrible? Arkansas looks like it has everything though, and the temperature inversion looks like it could be eroding. If there's anymore tornado warnings today, my bet is on them being there.
SB CAPE and ML CAPE are non existent, but MU CAPE is high because of changes in temperature with height?
At least Helicity is absolutely bonkers, shear is high, and hodographs are potent looking
So basically Kinematics are peak, but thermodynamics are terrible? Arkansas looks like it has everything though, and the temperature inversion looks like it could be eroding. If there's anymore tornado warnings today, my bet is on them being there.
Kds86z
Member
Arizona?
Whoops! Meant Arkansas. Fixed.
Kds86z
Member
Looks like a little bit of unexpected clearing above Arkansas ahead of the main line. Definitely something to keep an eye on as the HRRR was projecting full coverage.
