Kds86z
Member
First 5% tornado probs of 2026!
EARLY-DAY STORMS WITHIN THE MODEST WARM-ADVECTION REGIME FROM EAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY COULD POSE A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT OF
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH AN
ATTENDANT DAMAGING-WIND AND TORNADO THREAT THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, IF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION BECOMES
WIDESPREAD WITH INCREASINGLY PROMINENT OUTFLOW (AS INDICATED BY SOME
00Z HREF MEMBERS), THE MAGNITUDE AND NORTH/EAST EXTENT OF THE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT MAY BE RELATIVELY LIMITED. THE GREATEST
RELATIVE CONFIDENCE IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS PARTS OF LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS, WITH A MORE CONDITIONAL
THREAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA.
..DEAN.. 01/08/2026
EARLY-DAY STORMS WITHIN THE MODEST WARM-ADVECTION REGIME FROM EAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY COULD POSE A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT OF
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH AN
ATTENDANT DAMAGING-WIND AND TORNADO THREAT THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, IF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION BECOMES
WIDESPREAD WITH INCREASINGLY PROMINENT OUTFLOW (AS INDICATED BY SOME
00Z HREF MEMBERS), THE MAGNITUDE AND NORTH/EAST EXTENT OF THE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT MAY BE RELATIVELY LIMITED. THE GREATEST
RELATIVE CONFIDENCE IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS PARTS OF LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS, WITH A MORE CONDITIONAL
THREAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA.
..DEAN.. 01/08/2026
