Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Just got extended looks like.
View attachment 16505

Pretty nasty couplet.

 

[TornadoFan]

Another one in Illinois.

 

[Justin Hindman]

They must not think this second round will do anything for central Alabama with no watch

 

[Clancy]

They must not think this second round will do anything for central Alabama with no watch

New MD addresses this.

749
ACUS11 KWNS 040145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040145
ALZ000-MSZ000-040315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CST TUE JAN 03 2023

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GULF STATES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 040145Z - 040315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES, WITH IT A RISK OF WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO. A NEW WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RESPOND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER TEXAS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
CONVERGENT WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND PERHAPS MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, A FAIR
NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MATURED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL LA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL MS. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
AND AN UPWARD TICK IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY BE NOTED AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. OVERALL, SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE NOTEWORTHY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. A NEW WATCH MAY BE
WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 01/04/2023

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33368894 34458732 33108640 31688832 33368894

 

[Justin Hindman]

What’s crazy is not one tornado report in the enhanced risk, and Illinois was a surprise

 

[Clancy]

What’s crazy is not one tornado report in the enhanced risk, and Illinois was a surprise

Mother Nature is a strange mistress sometimes.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

RadarScope is having issues. Has current Tornado Watch #10 as a Severe Thunderstorm Watch on the Windows app but then on the Phone app it has it as a Tornado Watch.

Per the SPC site, watch No. 10 is in fact a severe thunderstorm watch.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

[Clancy]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Looking at the latest hrrr run. It has more broken up storms, it may not be a line either way have a way of recieving warnings. STP values are topping 7-8 in portions of central Alabama tonight. The last two times I slept on a January tornado threat at night my city got hit

 

[UncleJuJu98]

1km helicity will be a lot higher tonight than it has been during the day today, values reaching 300+ in central Alabama. Values today have been ranging around 150 if that.

Cape is around 100-1800 with pretty good shear makes a sneaky night time event.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

What’s crazy is not one tornado report in the enhanced risk, and Illinois was a surprise

There have been some touchdowns based on radar debris signatures, damage reports are currently listed as "wind" pending the surveys.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

[Justin Hindman]

1km helicity will be a lot higher tonight than it has been during the day today, values reaching 300+ in central Alabama. Values today have been ranging around 150 if that.

Cape is around 100-1800 with pretty good shear makes a sneaky night time event.

Well there isn’t any helictites right now lol. I’m almost home to Gardendale, just north of bham, watching them there and if they get out of hand I’ll be back out

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Well there isn’t any helictites right now lol. I’m almost home to Gardendale, just north of bham, watching them there and if they get out of hand I’ll be back out

I should word it higher helicity in about 5 hours so I guess early tommorow morning lol.

 

[atrainguy]

Tornado damage reported in Decatur, IL.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Cell W. of (where else) Bassfield looks pretty stout, still "just" severe-warned.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

[Clancy]

Instability building northwards into MS and AL this evening.

 

[Casie]

Instability building northwards into MS and AL this evening.
View attachment 16514

My DP was 62 in Trussville at 7:00 pm but has increased to 64 now.

 

[Clancy]

Round 2 lining up in MS. Gonna attempt to get some shut-eye myself but don't sleep on these (figuratively of course).

 

[MichelleH]

Tornado watch for a good part of Alabama until 4 am.

 

[Clancy]

Tornado watch for a good part of Alabama until 4 am.