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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

buckeye05

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The criticism is absolutely warranted, and I’m not going to stay silent when negligence is apparent. FFC has a really bad track record, and even failed to warn for very strong tornadoes that killed people during the Easter 2020 Outbreak. These weren’t quick, hard to see spin ups either. They were very obvious significant tornadoes with debris signatures. This one was pretty obvious too.

It’s one thing if it’s just a random slip up, but since this particular office has a pattern of failing to warn for tornadoes, it absolutely is their fault. Other offices do much better, so FFC needs to do better too.

I don’t work the job, but I know negligence when I see it. This was negligence.
 

Weatherphreak

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I'm sure this is coming in the future but with today's technology there is no reason that an automatic warning can't be triggered based off reflectivity. You could even add CC drops and things of that nature to the calculation. It won't be perfect but with more data the system should become better at recognizing real threats and not just warning every circulation. This is probably similar to how TVS works on current radars.
 
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Plus, FFC has a reputation for not warning storms that produce tornadoes. .
I'm not directing all of this at you, just speaking in general for some of the comments that have been made. The current WFO administration is very aware of the issues that have occurred in the past and are working to correct them. There were a few reasons for previous errors (mainly human based), but some of them are due to constraints with radar coverage in northern areas. KFFC and KHTX are limited across the north end of the CWA and make for very challenging warning decisions in QLCS events.

Today didn't have that limitation, however. I don't know why a warning wasn't issued once the CC drop occurred. But I also know that misses like today (and there is tree damage in the general area of the CC drop) do happen occasionally at every office during these type of events, no matter how hard you try to warn every spin-up. I imagine you'll see a few in BMX's area. But the reputation that has been earned over the last decade is still going to be seared into minds for a while. And today doesn't help. I can say that there is a really young/zealous group working at FFC now. I expect things to improve over time.
 

UncleJuJu98

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Shear is not great otherwise they would be on the ground
I Think it's the combination of low level shear and low level instability both having been great today; never really checked low level lapse rates either.. Should get better as the night goes on though so may see a uptick once things become a bit more linear with spin ups actually producing.
 

UncleJuJu98

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Tornsdo warning east of bassfield missippi is looking pretty formidable let's see where this one goes. Not much competition and increasing wind shear with not much drop off of instability
 

Clancy

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Last D1 of the day. No major changes to the categorical areas aside from trimming them out west. SPC mentions that conditions will become quite conducive for storms tonight across AL and GA.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA INCLUDING PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible across parts of the
Southeast, particularly from southern Mississippi into Alabama, far
southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. A strong tornado may
occur overnight.

...Southeastern states...
The influence of a leading wave which moved out of AL and into GA is
currently affecting low-level wind fields over AL, MS and LA this
evening, reducing SRH in some areas. However, the main upper trough
will move toward the MS Valley tonight, with increasing large-scale
ascent over the region. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F to
lower 70s F will maintain an unstable air mass ahead of a cold
front, with a degree of air mass recovery possible over parts of AL
and perhaps southwest GA. Numerous storms are expected to develop
near the cold front tonight, with an attendant increase in storm
relative helicity with 850 mb winds possibly to 50 kt by 12Z
Wednesday over AL and western GA. Given the increasing wind shear
and favorable ascent, storms may become supercells, either lone or
within a broken line, with a threat of tornadoes.
By Wednesday
morning, the severe threat may extend as far east as southwest GA,
and across parts of the FL Panhandle.

...Eastern IL into IN...
With the loss of heating, boundary-layer cooling will gradually
stabilize the air mass, while drier air also pushes eastward just
off the surface with veering 850 mb winds. As such, the threat for
small supercells will be confined to near the surface low track over
the next hour or two, with waning threat over time. Until then, an
isolated brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out this evening.

..Jewell.. 01/04/2023
1672794019435.png
 
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