Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 18-20th, 2023

[KevinH]

Will adjust as/if needed or delete if this does not pan out, BUT just in case…..

A thread for this time period.

 

[KevinH]

as far as I know this time period is not being talked about. The SPC in todays D4-8 says:

“Severe potential is expected to be low Thursday-Friday/Days 7-8.”

If they don’t highlight anything for this time period by Tuesday/Wednesday, I’ll delete the thread LOL

 

[KevinH]

Yep. SPC says there is no chance of an event for this period. Please feel free to delete this thread as it is a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, just like some past Wx events (ha!) I would delete it myself but I do not think I can (or know how) LOL!

 

[KevinH]

Renamed thread for POTENTIAL threat ~Jan 15-17.

 

[KevinH]

Haven’t heard it seen anything about this time period again…

Good. lol

 

[JPWX]

Haven’t heard it seen anything about this time period again…

Good. lol

You spoke too soon. LOL!

 

[KevinH]

You spoke too soon. LOL! View attachment 16642

I did.. lol

That’s a large area too. I am juuuuuuuust on the outside of the outlined area.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

They (CPC) also delineate actual severe weather risk areas as well. They used to do it kind of on their own which was always interesting to see, but ever since the SPC started doing the 4-8 they basically just copy that, so of course they never have anything highlighted for Week 2.

 

[JPWX]

Latest SPC Day 4-7 Discussion

 

[KevinH]

Latest SPC Day 4-7 Discussion
View attachment 16696

Updated the title of the thread from 15-17th to 17-18th.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

I might would expand that date range to 17-19th.

 

[KevinH]

I might would expand that date range to 17-19th.

I actually thought of that as I was changing it lol.

DONE.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

I'm out on tmrw's system. I'm going to relax at home.

17-19th system looks like it has a higher ceiling of potential.

Seems like a pattern has set in with a new low coming through every 6-8 days from this train of Pacific lows.

 

[KevinH]

I'm out on tmrw's system. I'm going to relax at home.

17-19th system looks like it has a higher ceiling of potential.

Seems like a pattern has set in with a new low coming through every 6-8 days from this train of Pacific lows.

Ryan Hall said the same thing in his latest video.

Dates of thread title updated.

 

[Austin Dawg]

I'm out on tmrw's system. I'm going to relax at home.

17-19th system looks like it has a higher ceiling of potential.

Seems like a pattern has set in with a new low coming through every 6-8 days from this train of Pacific lows.

I was wondering if this is a prelude to how it will be Feb thru springtime.

 

[KevinH]

I was wondering if this is a prelude to how it will be Feb thru springtime.

Same

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Time to turn gears and start looking into this time frame. Need a bit more consistency though, until the GFS and EURO jump on with a similar pattern idea for a few runs. Won't really talk to much on it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Doesn't look like there will be much instability to pull from I'm this timeframe

 

[KevinH]

Doesn't look like there will be much instability to pull from I'm this timeframe

That could change. Possibly at the last second.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That could change. Possibly at the last second.

Possibly with the euros solution the GFS solution seems doubtful